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Very brief comments on Venezuela

Summary:
The election in Venezuela is always contentious. I've written quite a bit about it over the years (see everything here; on the previous presidential election see here). Some have decided already that is a fraud, and sustain that the previous ones were also, although that is far from clear, and most likely Maduro (let alone Chávez did win all the previous elections). This time around things are less clear. First of all, the opposition seemed more unified, even with the disqualification of Maria Corina Machado, a mistake by Maduro, both from a general preoccupation with democracy, and also, because the actual opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, might have been more effective.In my view, the only way to know what happened one would have to check the data, and that is still not

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The election in Venezuela is always contentious. I've written quite a bit about it over the years (see everything here; on the previous presidential election see here). Some have decided already that is a fraud, and sustain that the previous ones were also, although that is far from clear, and most likely Maduro (let alone Chávez did win all the previous elections). This time around things are less clear. First of all, the opposition seemed more unified, even with the disqualification of Maria Corina Machado, a mistake by Maduro, both from a general preoccupation with democracy, and also, because the actual opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, might have been more effective.

In my view, the only way to know what happened one would have to check the data, and that is still not possible. Both Lula and Petro have asked for a peaceful recount of the votes. It is the only way to find out what actually happened. Same calls have been issued by reasonable opposition people like Francisco Rodriguez.

There is a great distance from saying that there were problems with the election, to suggest that is what fraudulent, and that Maduro is a dictator. Obviously Venezuela is flawed democracy. But, in all fairness, the US is very flawed too. A lot of people are excluded, some for questionable reasons, like being jailed, which disproportionately affects blacks and Hispanics, and several can't vote on a Tuesday, with limited numbers of polling places and of voting machines in poor areas, leading to much longer waiting times for working class people. These are just some examples. And it would be an understatement to say that Trump, and many others, have authoritarian tendencies.

That is NOT to say that everything is fine with Maduro and Venezuela. Certainly he has authoritarian tendencies, and even if he is proved to be the actual winner, there were too many problems with the elections. However, these are only exacerbated by the sanctions imposed by the US, and the anti-democratic tendencies of the opposition, always ready to promote a coup, with US support. Lifting the sanctions, and a more rational American policy towards Venezuela could be the actual path for more democratic outcomes there. Hope springs eternal.

Matias Vernengo
Econ Prof at @BucknellU Co-editor of ROKE & Co-Editor in Chief of the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics

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