by At this very moment (9 september 2016), arctic sea ice may have reached its yearly minimum extent. Does global warming cause a decline of this minimum? Business cycle economists use the phrase ‘months for cyclical dominance’: how many months does it take before trend movements are larger than monthly fluctuations of variables like consumption of exports? In the case of sea ice I used ‘years for cyclical dominance (YCD)’: a fourteen year moving average shows a continuous decline (the max. extent of arctic sea ice has a 10 year YCD). The decline is not linear. Remarkably, pre-2002 minima of the minimum are higher than post-2006 maxima of the minimum – a very robust indicator of a downward trend. Antarctic sea ice shows much less dramatic developments. This reminds us that we have to look at the global picture. Which is clear: 2016 is set to be the hottest year on record (breaking the 2015 record).
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At this very moment (9 september 2016), arctic sea ice may have reached its yearly minimum extent. Does global warming cause a decline of this minimum? Business cycle economists use the phrase ‘months for cyclical dominance’: how many months does it take before trend movements are larger than monthly fluctuations of variables like consumption of exports? In the case of sea ice I used ‘years for cyclical dominance (YCD)’: a fourteen year moving average shows a continuous decline (the max. extent of arctic sea ice has a 10 year YCD). The decline is not linear. Remarkably, pre-2002 minima of the minimum are higher than post-2006 maxima of the minimum – a very robust indicator of a downward trend. Antarctic sea ice shows much less dramatic developments. This reminds us that we have to look at the global picture. Which is clear: 2016 is set to be the hottest year on record (breaking the 2015 record).