by Peak Babies was in 2012. At this moment, we´re back to the level of forty years ago (and the most recent data may well be an overestimate). For the first time in centuries, cohorts entering the global labour market will soon be smaller than the cohorts preceding them. Even when there are significant differences in levels between countries, the years around 1970 were a turning point everywhere. In 1965, the relentless movement towards below-replacement human reproduction started. Aside: that won´t be a blessing for the environment. The 10% wealthiest people cause about 50% of all unsustainability or something like that, meaning that a much smaller global population can still wreck the planet. Do not underestimate the magnitude of the decline. In Seoul, the fertility rate has
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Merijn T. Knibbe considers the following as important: Afghanistan, China, decline, demographics, fertility, Iraq, ivf, Nigeria, politics, Uncategorized, young-men
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Peak Babies was in 2012. At this moment, we´re back to the level of forty years ago (and the most recent data may well be an overestimate). For the first time in centuries, cohorts entering the global labour market will soon be smaller than the cohorts preceding them.
Even when there are significant differences in levels between countries, the years around 1970 were a turning point everywhere. In 1965, the relentless movement towards below-replacement human reproduction started. Aside: that won´t be a blessing for the environment. The 10% wealthiest people cause about 50% of all unsustainability or something like that, meaning that a much smaller global population can still wreck the planet.
Do not underestimate the magnitude of the decline. In Seoul, the fertility rate has plummeted to 0,55, meaning grandchildren are around 1/14th of the grandparents’ generation. Other cities will follow. It puts the MAGA wish to deport tens of millions of people into a ´the department of stupid´ perspective. Instead of doing this, countries should provide a safety net, free education, accessible healthcare, and many more excellent houses and high-quality jobs for their citizens. Having stated this, Russia is already trading oil for military-commodified North Koreans. My prediction: We haven´t seen the latest of such deals. All this will, however, not increase fertility rates.
Pro-birth people point to Mongolia as a country which, thanks to policies glorifying mums, successfully bucked the trend. But… it didn´t.
Israel? Hmmm…
Niger (the country with for a long time the highest birth rate of the world)? Hmmm… (the birth rate is, in a historical perspective, still very high)
Compared with neighbouring countries (including Israel in the case of Iraq), fertility is high in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan. Which are shining examples of stability, gender equality and reproductive healthcare and rights, as we all know (cynicism). As is well known, fertility is relatively high in Africa. In Nigeria (which has 235.000.000 inhabitants) it has been relatively high but it is declining, which is related to urbanization.
We´ve seen peak babies. Looking at it from a global perspective, there is no reason for alarm. Not at all. Locally, fertility rates of 0,55 might cause havoc, however. As large countries will realize that their power is dependent on their people, current anti-migration policies might soon be reversed. After the First World War, entire generations of young men were wiped out. But as subsequent generations were much larger,this was not too much of a problem for countries like France and the Soviet-Union. Young people were expendable. Not anymore.
