Thursday , January 23 2020
Home / Tag Archives: economic data

Tag Archives: economic data

My constant end of cycle worries

Despite my seemingly panglossian ‘cautiously optimistic’ post last week, I am still very much worried that we are hitting the end of this cycle. I’ll tell you why below. But, let me add just a few notes on style first! In keeping with ‘the Credit Writedowns style’ for 2020, this post will be brief. Also, it’s outside the paywall. Since I intend to write more, every fourth or fifth post is going outside the paywall. That way, people get a sense of what’s on offer. Last ‘End of cycle...

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Some soft US data doesn’t yet mean recession

Quick post outside the paywall here on some of the data coming out of the US recently FedEx bellwether I wanted to start with FedEx because it is often considered a bellwether of the US economy given its position at the center of shipping and delivery logistics. It released a disappointing earnings report on Tuesday: FedEx said it now forecasts fiscal 2020 earnings of $9.10 to $10.35 a share, or $10.25 to $11.50 a share excluding expenses and aircraft impairment charges connected...

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This jobs report is a game-changer regarding monetary policy. Here’s why

It’s been a while since I had a public post on Credit Writedowns. So I thought now would be a good time to post given Wednesday’s Fed rate decision and presser and today’s jobs report. I think this one-two punch is a big deal. And that’s because it forces the market back to a focus on the Fed’s tightening bias from its focus on weak data forcing the Federal Reserve to cut. Thoughts below The narrative Before I get to the data, let me spell out how to think about the market and the...

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