Tag Archives: Economics

The advantages and limitations of forecasting In New York State, Section 899 of the Code of Criminal Procedure provides that persons “Pretending to Forecast the Future” shall be considered disorderly under subdivision 3, Section 901 of the Code and liable to a fine of $250 and/or six months in prison. Although the law does not apply to “ecclesiastical bodies acting in good faith and without fees,” I’m not sure where that leaves econometricians and other...

Gary Becker’s big mistake The econometrician Henri Theil once said “models are to be used but not to be believed.” I use the rational actor model for thinking about marginal changes but Gary Becker really believed the model. Once, at a dinner with Becker, I remarked that extreme punishment could lead to so much poverty and hatred that it could create blowback. Becker was having none of it. For every example that I raised of blowback, he responded with a...

Policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, much like policy responses to the global financial crisis and Great Recession of a decade ago, carry a couple of clear macroeconomic lessons for anyone who cares to learn them: 1. A currency-issuing government faces no revenue constraint.2. A currency-issuing government dictates the terms on which it issues debt. It is not only electorates that, understandably, have been slow to appreciate these aspects of reality. Plenty of economists,...

How to get published in ‘top’ economics journals If you think that your paper is vacuous, Use the first-order functional calculus. It then becomes logic, And, as if by magic, The obvious is hailed as miraculous. Paul Halmos

A couple of years ago — when visiting one of Helsinki’s many nice cafés and restaurants — yours truly read the following inscription on a mirror and thought Keynes must have been here … Anyhow — slides from yours truly’s keynote presentation at the Kalevi Sorsa Foundation celebration of the 80th anniversary of Keynes’ General Theory is available here.

Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action Last week I mentioned the new COVID research RECOVR hub, which was still in development. This week it’s been launched officially, to help development researchers share information about ongoing studies, survey instruments, and funding opportunities. If you are doing related work, please share or have a look at what other researchers are doing so we can build on one another’s work. A great initiative from the Busara Center, “Give...

Is economics — really — a science? As yours truly has reported repeatedly during the last couple of years, university students all over Europe are increasingly beginning to question if the kind of economics they are taught — mainstream economics — really is of any value. Some have even started to question if economics is a science. At least two Nobel laureates in economics have tried to respond. This is Robert Shiller‘s answer: Critics of “economic...

Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action First some good news – congratulations to development economist and dewormer Ted Miguel, social psychologist of diversity and justice Jennifer Richeson, gynecologist and Nobel laureate, Denis Mukwege of the DRC, and the other newly elected members of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. For researchers working on (or interested in working on COVID in low- and middle-income countries): to facilitate collaboration, with...

In Michel De Vroey’s version of the history of macroeconomics, Robert Lucas’ declaration of the need for macroeconomics to be pursued only within ‘equilibrium discipline’ and declaring equilibrium to exist as a postulate, is hailed as a ‘Copernican revolution.’ Equilibrium is not to be considered something that characterises real economies, but rather “a property of the way we look at things.” De Vroey, approvingly, notices that this — as well as Lucas’ banning of...

MMT and corona policy measures Many commentators seem to view MMT as merely a blueprint for turning on the printing press … These commentators have it all wrong. MMT does not support quantitative easing (QE), nor does it prescribe “helicopter drops,” for the simple reason that there is no such thing as a “helicopter-money” alternative to financing a fiscal-stimulus package. Instead, what MMT does is describe how a government that issues its own currency...