The old man knew what it was. At first, he hoped to wait until tomorrow. That wasn’t meant to be. He had to go now, and his regular Doctor was too far away; especially at the time of day. The nearest Emergency Room (E.R.) it was. By this time, he could barely walk, but felt that he was alright to drive. The walk from the parking garage to the hospital front entry took all he had. There, the security guy told him that he couldn’t go through to the...
Read More »Ukraine, Israel, and Biden: lessons and questions
Some thoughts on recent developments . . . Elite persuasion and its limits News reports suggest that President Biden got Speaker Mike Johnson to put a Ukraine aid bill on the floor of the House through good, old-fashioned persuasion: Biden and his team convinced Johnson it was the right thing to do by sharing intelligence with him. Biden didn’t berate Johnson in public. I suspect he flattered Johnson in private. Knowing how to deal with...
Read More »Why Isn’t The USA in a recession ?
Oddly I am back here posting. Even more oddly I am posting on the topic I am paid to address. I start by noting two things. About one year ago, many macroeconomic forecasters predicted that a recession would have started by now in the USA. I forget who placed the probability at 100%. In spite of sltightly disappointing 0.4% (1.6% if annualized) real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024, we are not in a recesion. What went right ? The...
Read More »“Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Bonddad Blog – by New Deal democrat No economic news today, so let me take a look at the supposed killer recent GOP meme that they claim is completely unanswerable: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” This is based primarily on consumer sentiment reading as well as polling that has consistently shown that most people think that the economy is poor, even though they rate their own situation as doing well. Dan...
Read More »Social Security: What Would Happen If the Trust Funds Ran Out?
A repost of a Bruce Webb take on Social Security and what happens if the Trust Funds go to zero. This is from 2015 and as you know, not much has been done. In one respect, maybe nothing should be done as long as it does not become a major crisis. By that I mean, we should be sure our actions are not over-zealous in solution. Do enough to stabilize it for the future as Dale Coberly and Bruce Webb proposed with the Northwest Plan. The timely is now...
Read More »2024 Election Life and Death Game Theory: Introduction
Background Assumption #1: Voting is an affirmative action. You have to be willing to do it. When I say, “if it’s raining, I’m not going to waste my time voting for Joe Biden and Tammy Murphy,” it will not change the outcome of the Presidential or, probably, even the New Jersey Senate election. But the turnout will be lower than a sunny day would be. Similarly, “if it’s only drizzling, I’ll probably vote for Andy Kim, at which point I might as...
Read More »Eighth grade algebra
I took Algebra I in 8th grade. Algebra I and typing were the two classes I took in junior high that I can say I have used regularly for the rest of my life (so far).In the school system I was in, there was tracking. Some kids got to take 8th grade Algebra I. The rest took regular math. The ones who took Algebra I in 8th took Geometry in 9th, Algebra II and Trig in 10th, advanced pre-calculus in 11th and Calculus in 12th. I got off that bus after 10th...
Read More »City mouse, country mouse
Over at jabberwocking.com, Kevin Drum takes on Paul Krugman over his assertion that small-town America is aggrieved because the working-age men are more likely to be unemployed than their metropolitan counterparts. As usual, Kevin brings the charts and numbers to show that while Krugman isn’t wrong, the differences are small and don’t explain “white rural rage.” Kevin notes that while pay is less in rural areas, the difference is mostly compensated...
Read More »Fusion power won’t save us
“Using the Joint European Torus (JET) — a huge, donut-shaped machine known as a tokamak — the scientists sustained a record 69 megajoules of fusion energy for five seconds, using just 0.2 milligrams of fuel. That’s enough to power roughly 12,000 households for the same amount of time.”Progress, yes, but incremental.“And myriad challenges remain. Khan points out that the team used more energy to carry out the experiment than it generated, for...
Read More »(Not) Thinking About Money
(Not) Thinking About Money, Wealth Economics, Steve Roth (substack.com) It’s tempting to abolish the word entirely. Reprint from Wealth Economics. J.W. Mason offers a bang-up post on economists’ thinking about “money,” how economists have thought and talked about it over decades and centuries. There’s even a class syllabus and reading list from his class for his John Jay MA econ students. It’s a very deep dive. (“Thirteen Ways of Looking at...
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