Heterodox
Washington CNN Someone is hopeful a small decrease in the Fed Rate will impact the economy (housing, etc.) greatly. While it is a positive move over the next 6 or so months (just kidding), I can not see shall a huge decline in rates forthcoming after a decrease. We still have a ways to go. The Federal Reserve gave an important clue Wednesday that it will likely cut its Benchmark Lending Rate in the coming months. The move would pave the way...
Read More »October retail sales: consumers: “We’re not dead yet!”
October retail sales: consumers: “We’re not dead yet!” – by New Deal democrat Retail sales, my favorite consumer indicator, was reported this morning for October. And it was a good number, up +1.3% nominally, and up +0.5% after adjusting for inflation: On the bright side, this was the highest absolute number since April. On the down side, retail sales have still gone essentially nowhere for the last 18 months. As a result, YoY retail...
Read More »October industrial production: consistent with a very slow expansion
– by New Deal democrat I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because more often than any other metric it coincides with the peaks and troughs of economic activity as determined by the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions. Unlike retail sales, the news this morning for October was not so good. While manufacturing production did increase +0.2% to a new post-pandemic high, overall production declined -0.1% for...
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