The banks are re-opening, though just for transactions, so people can pay their bills and their taxes, pay in cheques, that kind of thing. The cash withdrawal limit has been changed to a weekly limit of 420 EUR per card per person, enabling households to manage their cash flow better. But the capital controls remain: money cannot leave the country without the agreement of the Finance Ministry. And the banks remain short of cash: although the ECB has raised the funding limit by 900m EUR, that...
Read More »Variable geometry bites back: Schäuble’s motives
In-depth analysis on Credit Writedowns Pro. By Fabio Ghironi As originally written at Vox. Success of the German-inspired solution for the latest Greek crisis is far from assured. If it fails, the Eurozone may be changed forever. This column argues that the failure would lead to an outcome that has been favoured for decades by Germany’s Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble. Perhaps the package the Eurozone agreed is just a backdoor way of getting to the ‘variable geometry’ and monetary...
Read More »The Great Greek Bank Drama, Act I: Schaeuble’s Sin Bin
Greece's banks have been closed since 29th June. The closure followed the ECB's decision not to increase ELA funding after talks broke down between the Greek government and the Eurogroup.The closure is doing immense economic damage. The cash withdrawal limit of 60 euros per bank card per day is restricting spending in the Greek economy to a trickle. Media generally focus more on the hardship that the cash limit causes for households: but far worse is the inability of businesses to...
Read More »The new European Union
In-depth analysis on Credit Writedowns Pro. By Charles Wyplosz This article originally appeared on Vox on 14 Jul 2015 The new bailout deal for Greece was not easy. This column argues that it was also a failure. It will not be enough to recapitalise banks, it asks for structural reform that exceeds Greek capacities, and it raises the Greek debt-to-GDP ratio to unsustainable levels. In a few months or quarters, the programme will fail and the Grexit question will flare up again. The Summit...
Read More »You Know the Mainstream European Left is Bankrupt when their Leaders can’t make Speeches like this
This is the British UKIP leader Nigel Farage speaking in the European Parliament a few days ago when the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was present.[embedded content]And, no, I haven’t gone conservative, nor would I endorse UKIP’s domestic economic policies – which would involve a nasty dose of neoliberal poison, probably worse than the conventional neoliberalism. And, yes, we all know well that some people who vote for UKIP are xenophobic and bigoted. They also have an unhinged...
Read More »There are controls, and then there are controls….
Guest post by Sigrún DavídsdóttirNow that Greece has controls on outtake from banks, capital controls, many commentators are comparing Greece to Iceland. There is little to compare regarding the nature of capital controls in these two countries. The controls are different in every respect except in the name. Iceland had, what I would call, real capital controls – Greece has control on outtake from banks. With the names changed, the difference is clear.Iceland – capital controlsThe controls in...
Read More »Tsipras in the crucible
The atmosphere in the Greek standoff is turning ugly. On Tuesday, after new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos turned up to Eurogroup talks with nothing but hastily-drafted notes written on hotel paper, Eurozone leaders told the Greek government in no uncertain terms that if it did not produce credible proposals by Sunday 12th July Greece would be thrown out of the Eurozone. "We have a Grexit scenario prepared in detail", said European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.The...
Read More »Who would win and who would lose from Grexit?
Guest post by Tom StreithorstVladimir Illych Lenin may well be the most destructive political theorist of the 20th century. His glorification of a conspiratorial party as agent of a glorious future legitimised mass murder from Bolshevik Russia to Nazi Germany to Cambodia's Khmer Rouge. Nonetheless, he did invent an analytical tool political scientists and economists should use more often: “Kto Kovo”, or “who beats whom”. In examining any policy, Lenin suggests the first...
Read More »A New Deal for Greece
It appears that the Greeks have given a bloody nose to the EU, turning in a resounding NO vote in Sunday's referendum. Though exactly what they have rejected is unclear. The ballot paper is, to say the least, complicated. The UK's Telegraph published this translation from Greek Analyst:The ballot paper of the #greferendum question upon which the Greek people are called to vote on. (Translated) pic.twitter.com/hPGJcp49Gs— The Greek Analyst (@GreekAnalyst) June 29, 2015 And the paper asked,...
Read More »A Return to Fundamentals?
In-depth analysis on Credit Writedowns Pro. The Absolute Return Letter, July 2015 “In a world that is changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks.” Mark Zuckerberg Greece on the brink A Greek, an Irishman and a Portuguese walk into a bar and order a drink. Who picks up the tab? A German . . . Months (years!) of upheaval in Greece have taught me one important lesson. Don’t take anything for granted in politics. The referendum scheduled for...
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