Tag Archives: Hot Topics

A last look at the 2009 – 2020 expansion by New Deal democrat All of the most important economic from February has been reported. Since that was the last month before coronavirus derailed everything, I thought I would take a look back and see what shape the economy was in just before the moment of impact. As usual, the 4 coincident indicators that the NBER usually looks for in determining whether the economy is in expansion or contraction are: industrial...

[embedded content]Relax a Little Bit

(Abbreviated) coronavirus dashboard for March 29 – by New Deal democrat Here is the update through yesterday (March 28) [NOTE: I am not including the State by State breakdown today, which is time-intensive to create. It will resume tomorrow.] In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing). At...

Brace yourselves: the US is setting up a ghastly “natural experiment” – by New Deal democrat When I began my “Coronavirus Dashboard,” I was hopeful that it would document the slow progress towards turning a bad situation around, and the ultimate tamping down of the pandemic. Surely increasingly intense and overwhelming public pressure would force a critical mass of government officials to do what was necessary? Now I am not so sure. The number of cases...

Weekly Indicators for March 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As you might expect, almost all of the “hard” indicators have crashed. What sticks out is that consumer spending, as measured by chain store sales, has not – even though one week ago the coronavirus restrictions were very much in place in many regions. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you thoroughly up to date. It also...

The Covid-19 epidemic is creating a painful dilemma for policymakers.  On the one hand, we need to practice social distancing to keep people healthy and to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed.  Unfortunately, this strategy is causing a severe economic contraction as people avoid contact with others. An ideal response to this dilemma would have three basic components.  First, we would implement a hard, nation-wide lockdown to slow the spread of...

Alan Collinge of the Student Loan Justice Org. has a petition supporting the cancellation of Student Loan Debt. If we can bail out corporations again, why not bailing out people with excessive student loan debt? The student loan justice.org is counting on you and needs your help with “President Trump: Cancel Student Loans NOW.”  Join student loan justice.org and the 116,064 signers of the petition calling for President Trump to cancel student loan debt....

Coronavirus dashboard for March 28: testing falls further behind- by New Deal democrat Here is the update through yesterday (March 27) In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing). At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results...

The USA is about to experience the largest fiscal policy shift since World War II. The House is debating whether to add $ 2,200,000,000,000 to the Federal Budget Deficit (counting loans as if they were expenses because that’s what they do). There appears to be a near consensus as all are speaking in favor. It is just possible to guess which are Republicans I’m sure there is a similar near consensus that Rep Thomas Masie of Kentucky, who made them fly to...

For 3 days from an abundance of caution, 4 hours a day of online teaching responsibilities and extreme laziness, I have stayed in an apartment usuaally in a bed. Rome is a bit different than was I went into hibernation. There are people walking around without dogs on a leash. Some cars. There was a guard outside the supermarket absolutely waiting for someone to come out bfore letting someone in. No crowds: no line at cashier. The Deli lady (who I thanked...