Tag Archives: Hot Topics

January manufacturing at recessionary levels; December construction spending also declines  – by New Deal democrat The first data for the month of January is in, and with one exception, it is pretty bad. The ISM manufacturing index declined -1.0 to 47.4. According to the ISM, 48 is the cutoff below which is more consistent with a recession. Even worse, the new orders subindex cratered, falling 2.6 to 42.5: Going back 75 years, the *only*...

California holds out as Arizona, other states submit Colorado River plan, ktar.com, KTAR FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. (AP) — Six Western states that rely on water from the Colorado River have agreed on a model to dramatically cut water use in the basin, months after the federal government called for action and an initial deadline passed. With the largest allocation of water from the river, California is the lone holdout. Officials said the state would...

House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits peaked at the beginning of 2022, and starts followed several months later.  This morning the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes for November showed continued declines from their seasonally adjusted June 2022 peak, and also continued...

Introduction: Each time there is a mass shooting, Angry Bear will take a stance on the issue. A stance which many will not like. Angry Bear is tolerant of opposing views to a point. For the record, I am an XMarine Sergeant who was an Expert with a straight-out-of-the-armory stock M14. I grew up shooting various weapons. Last week, we featured Annieasksyou. Today, Angry Bear is featuring Infidel753 and his take on schools being made safer....

Weekly Indicators for January 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat “Slowly I turn. Step by step . . .” That old Vaudeville bit comes to mind in watching the coincident indicators creep towards a recessionary downturn on a weekly basis. Also, some of the long leading indicators are also creeping in the direction of  no longer being negative. Which is a longer way to say, my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As...

Good news and bad news on personal income and spending  – by New Deal democrat December personal income and spending had some material for both optimists and pessimists. Let’s look at the good news first, mainly having to do with inflation. Both the total and core personal consumption deflator continued their overall deceleration in December, with the former up +0.3% for the month, and the latter, said to be much beloved by the Fed, up just...

Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative  – by New Deal democrat Here’s my last note for this morning. Real Q4 GDP came in at +0.7%, or +2.8% annualized. While this is lower than most quarters in the past several years, as shown below: Although not shown (due to the huge pandemic swings), it would have been slightly above average for any quarter in the 10 years that predated the pandemic. But as usual,...

The 2023 ACA Open Enrollment Period is the best ever. The prime reason being the expansion of enhanced premium subsidies, first introduced in 2021 via the American Rescue Plan. ACA premiums became less costly for those who were already qualified. The lower pricing of ACA plans resulted in the expansion of eligibility to millions who were not previously eligible. The ARP ACA expansion will continue for at least another 3 years under the Inflation...

Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators – all of which are close to turning negative  – by New Deal democrat While we await tomorrow morning’s deluge of Almost Every Economic Series Imaginable, I have posted over at Seeking Alpha a detailed look at one measure of consumer spending and two of employment which will give us extremely timely warnings as to whether a recession has started. I explain their trajectory in the past...

I am waiting to see what the courts dish out for the insurrectionists who thought it was kind-of-“kool” to attack the Senate and House while in session certifying the 2020 presidential election vote. The insurrectionist sitting at Nancy Pelosi’s desk was sentenced last week. He claimed he was looking for a bathroom. So far, I have not been impressed with the sentences handed down to insurrectionists. I believe the sentencing is too lenient. If we...