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Tag Archives: imports

Domestic factory orders and production vs. real imports as economic forecasting tools

 – by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the economy as a whole. This post explores why and suggests a revised tool that may be a helpful short leading indicator. On Monday, durable goods orders rebounded sharply in July from their abrupt June decline. Still, as shown in the graph below, growth in both new factory orders and core capital goods orders has...

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Peter May — Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and international trade

This discussion has foundered on the rocks of semantics. The assertion is that imports are a real benefit and exports are a real cost. This is means that real resources are being transferred from domestic use in the case of exports, which is a real cost domestically, and real resources are being received in the case of imports, which is a real benefit domestically.Countries trade with each other either to obtain goods less expensively than they can be produced domestically, or to obtain...

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Competition from China reduced Innovation in the US

Via Tyler Cowen, here is a piece by David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, Gary P. Pisano and Pian Shu. Cowen quoted the most important part, so let me follow his lead: The central finding of our regression analysis is that firms whose industries were exposed to a greater surge of Chinese import competition from 1991 to 2007 experienced a significant decline in their patent output. A one standard deviation larger increase in import penetration decreased a...

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