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Tag Archives: industrial production

Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16-month streak of weakness

Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16-month streak of weakness – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at two the big short leading and coincident indicators that were reported yesterday, respectively real retail sales and inducatrial production. Retail sales can be volatile monthly, and about once in a typical year they either faceplant or unexpectedly soar. Yesterday we got the facelpalnt. Retail sales declined...

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Industrial production improves, with help from vehicle production: travelin’ man edition

Industrial production improves, with help from vehicle production: travelin’ man edition  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production increased 1.0% in July. Its manufacturing component increased 0.5%. Total production is still down -0.6% from its peak last autumn, while manufacturing is down -01.%: These are not recessionary numbers.  It’s worth emphasizing that the unspooling of pandemic related bottlenecks is significantly affecting...

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Positive revisions make for a good March industrial production report

Positive revisions make for a good March industrial production report  – by New Deal democrat If retail sales for March were bad, industrial production (blue in the graph below) was at very least mixed to the upside. Total production increased +0.4%, and on top of that February was revised higher by +0.2%, and January was revised higher by +0.5%. The not so good news is that while manufacturing (red) was also revised higher by +0.5% for...

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Strong September Industrial Production

September industrial production comes in very strong  – by New Deal democrat September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already in recession. I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and troughs of US economic activity as determined by the NBER. In September total production increased...

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Industrial production heats up in July

Industrial production heats up in July If the news in the housing sector this morning was bad, the news from the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, was quite good. Total production rose 0.6% to a new all-time high. Manufacturing production rose 0.7%, and is below its April peak by only -0.1%: Barring downward revisions, this, together with the latest blockbuster employment report, makes it *very* unlikely that the US was...

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June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturing

June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturing  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined -0.2% in June, and May was revised downward to unchanged. Even worse, manufacturing production declined -0.5% in June, and May was revised downward to -0.5% as well: This corresponds to the sharp deterioration in the regional Fed new orders indexes, and the ISM manufacturing new orders index we have seen during...

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Industrial production continues to show excellent growth

Industrial production continues to show excellent growth I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because it speaks volumes about where the economy is at any particular moment, and empirically is the indicator whose peaks and troughs coincide most definitively with NBER recession dates. In April the story told by industrial production continued to be very positive, as total production rose by 1.1%, and manufacturing...

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March Industrial Production Rose 0.9% to Highest on Record

RJS; MarketWatch 666 Summary: March industrial production: G17 release on Industrial production and Capacity Utilization for March indicates industrial production rose 0.9% in March after rising by a revised 0,9% in February and a revised 1.0% in January, which left production 5.5% higher than a year ago. Industrial Production Rose 0.9% to Highest on Record in March The Fed’s G17 release on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for...

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Industrial production nowcasts that the economy continues to perform well

Industrial production nowcasts that the economy continues to perform well Industrial production increased in February by 0.5%, its highest reading ever with the exception of two months in 2014, and the second half of 2018. Manufacturing production  increased 1.2%, also its highest ever with the exception of 24 months from late 2006 through early 2008:Of course, considering population and GDP growth in the past 15 years, this is hardly...

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 . . And Industrial Production isn’t too shabby, either

 . . And Industrial Production isn’t too shabby, either Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, was reported for October this morning in addition to real retail sales, discussed already in my last post. – and it was also quite positive. Total production increased 1.6% during the month, and manufacturing production increased 1.3%. This was the biggest monthly increase for total production since March of this year, and...

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