Tag Archives: inverted yield curve

[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser, like me, is an Old School blogger, and like me, is focused on forecasting.  Yesterday he wrote a piece about supplementing the yield curve with a second condition, the private nonfinancial debt service ratio. Basically, what percent of income is needed to service debt. Doing […] The post Why has the inverted yield curve failed? A fundamentals-based explanation appeared first on...

 – by New Deal democrat at the Bonddad Blog Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser makes the point that the yield curve is still inverted, and has not yet eclipsed the longest previous time between onset of such an inversion and a recession. So he believes the threat of recession is still on the table. And he’s correct about the yield curve, although it is getting very long in the tooth. In the past half century, the shortest time between a 10...

An update on the yield curve This is an update on my yield curve post from earlier this week.As had happened in the previous few days, the 3 to 5 year Treasury yield spread, which was inverted intraday, un-inverted by the close of the trading day. Here is what the US Treasury yield curve looked like yesterday: As you can see, it is kinked at the 7 and 20 year maturities. Aside from that, from Fed funds out through 30 years it has a more...

The US Treasury yield curve is on the verge of inverting My graphing issue hasn’t resolved yet. Fortunately there is no big new economic news today, and there is something I’ve been following with particular interest in the past week that doesn’t require any graphing: namely, the Treasury bond yield curve is on the verge of inverting. Normally, we should expect to see increasing yields the longer the maturity. This is pretty simple stuff: if I...

The big picture then is this: a global economy into its ninth year of the business cycle that is starting to gain momentum with the US flirting with 3% growth and 4% unemployment with richly priced asset markets but a flattening yield curve. We’ve seen this picture before.… In retrospect, one could argue that the Fed’s late interest rate hike campaign was a policy error – that the Fed should have seen the flattening yield curve as a canary in the coal mine and resisted raising its policy...

Ed Harrison looks at inversion historically.Credit Writedowns Why the flattening yield curve doesn’t worry me yetEdward Harrison