Tag Archives: jobless claims

The good news on jobless claims continues  – by New Deal democrat The recent streak of very positive news on jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 201,000. The four week moving average declined -250 to 207,750. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -34,000 to 1.834 million. The first two are close to their post-pandemic lows of one year ago, and continuing claims are the lowest since the...

It appears there will be no layoffs pre-Christmas and Christmas. After Christmas, the delays in implementing EVs at GM will result in layoffs in Michigan. A holly jolly holiday season for initial jobless claims  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 205,000, while the four-week average declined -1,500 to 212,000. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -1,000 to 1.865 million: No...

Jobless claims: good news all around  – by New Deal democrat This was one of the best weeks as to jobless claims all year. Initial claims declined -17,000 to 202,000, a tie for the 2nd lowest number in 10 months. The four week average declined -7,750 to 213,250. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims rose 20,000 to 1.876 million: Even more importantly for forecasting purposes, the YoY% changes both for the weekly number and the...

Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 in the past week. The 4 week moving average increased 7,750 to 220,250. With a one week lag, continued claims rose 32,000 to 1.865 million: I had speculated that the big decline in claims through September may have been affected by some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, and the last several weeks have...

Initial claims: were the recent lows just unresolved seasonality after all?  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 5,000 to a 7 week high of 217,000 this week. The 4 week moving average rose 2,000 to 210,000 from its 9 month low of 208,000 last week. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims continued their recent sharp ascent, up 35,000 to 1.818 million. Aside from 2 weeks in April, this is the highest level of continuing...

Jobless claims continue near expansion lows  – by New Deal democrat Jobless claims continued very low last week, justifying taking down the “yellow caution flag” that had been in place for a number of months. Specifically, weekly new claims rose 10,000 to 210,000 – still a very low historical number. The more important four week moving average increased 1,250 to 207,500. Contrarily with a one-week lag, continuing claims rose sharply, up...

Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality  –  by New Deal democrat It continues to be reasonably clear that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in initial jobless claims, which nose-dived last September and rebounded during October. So far the same pattern is evident this year. To wit, initial claims rose 1,000 last week to 207,000. The more important 4 week moving average...

Initial jobless claims remain higher on a YoY basis, but do not suggest near term recession  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 211,000. The 4 week moving average declined -6,250 to 211,000. With a one week lag, continuing claims rose 42,000 to 1.670 million: Although this appears very strong on an absolute scale, we had a very similar sharp decline to new 50 year lows last September as well, which make me...

Initial jobless claims maintain renewed yellow caution flag  – by New Deal democrat Some post-pandemic unresolved seasonality may be affecting the weekly claims figures, as just like last year, they are declining sharply compared with early August. But on a YoY basis, they are not nearly so positive. Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 last week to 220,000. The 4 week average declined -5,000 to 224,500. With a one-week delay, continuing claims...

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 21,000 to 1.7 million: The YoY% change is much more important for forecasting purposes. There, initial claims were up 4.1%, the 4 week average up 5.8%, and continuing...