Tuesday , March 5 2024
Home / The Angry Bear / Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold

Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold

Summary:
Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 in the past week. The 4 week moving average increased 7,750 to 220,250. With a one week lag, continued claims rose 32,000 to 1.865 million: I had speculated that the big decline in claims through September may have been affected by some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, and the last several weeks have indicated that speculation may indeed have had merit. Which makes the YoY comparisons more important. On the more important YoY basis for forecasting, initial claims were up 9.5%, the four week average up 7.0%, and continued claims up 28.3%: Initial claims remain below the 10% increase YoY level that

Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: , , , ,

This could be interesting, too:

NewDealdemocrat writes Manufacturing and construction show softness to start the month

Angry Bear writes USPS Optimized Collections – The threat to election mail and other risks

Bill Haskell writes United Healthcare Physician Practice Mergers and Pricing

NewDealdemocrat writes January personal income and spending: Goldilocks is knocking at the door

Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold

 – by New Deal democrat

Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 in the past week. The 4 week moving average increased 7,750 to 220,250. With a one week lag, continued claims rose 32,000 to 1.865 million:

Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold

I had speculated that the big decline in claims through September may have been affected by some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, and the last several weeks have indicated that speculation may indeed have had merit. Which makes the YoY comparisons more important.

On the more important YoY basis for forecasting, initial claims were up 9.5%, the four week average up 7.0%, and continued claims up 28.3%:

Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold

Initial claims remain below the 10% increase YoY level that would warrant a yellow caution flag. While continuing claims are at YoY levels that in the past signaled recession, they have not increase YoY in almost 6 months, which tells me that longer term unemployment is also not likely to increase YoY.

Finally, here is the update vs. the Sahm rule. So far in November, initial claims are up 7.4% YoY, which suggests an unemployment rate of about 3.8% in the next few months:

Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold

This is not at the 4%+ level that would trigger the Rule.

Initial claims on the cusp of turning lower YoY, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *