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Tag Archives: jobs

For the second time in three months, the Household jobs Survey was recessionary

 – by New Deal democrat First, a brief programming note. This week is particularly sparse in the new economic data department. The Senior Loan Officer Survey will be reported this afternoon, and on Thursday as usual we get jobless claims. Aside from that, nada. So I might take a day or two off. But I want to spend some time looking more closely at last Friday’s jobs report(s). I use the plural, because last Friday there really were two very...

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The economy is actually doing great — unless you want to make a change in your life.

Liking your present situation right now? Your job, your house, your car, you can keep it and you may have to do so. Buying a new car, house, or getting a different job may be more costly and not pay off. Even if you are not so satisfied, chances maybe you having to manage your pennies and stay put. Making a major economic change today involving costly upgrades, may not be advantageous, right now. Getting far out on a limb in a new job or with...

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December jobs report: consistent with a “soft landing,” despite discordance in household data

December jobs report: consistent with a “soft landing,” despite discordance in household data  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:  Whether there is further deceleration in jobs gains compared with the last 6-month average Whether the unemployment rate is neutral or decreasing; or...

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An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level

An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level  – by New Deal democrat As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to decelerate, and whether the unemployment rate would remain “sticky” at its higher, 3.8%, rate. Two of those three came to pass. The third, jobs growth, emphatically did not! But it may well...

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Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag

Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the four week average up 10.6%, and continuing claims up 30.8%: Just as importantly, the average for July so far...

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Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag

Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the four week average up 10.6%, and continuing claims up 30.8%: Just as importantly, the average for July so far...

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April JOLTS report noisily shows continued deceleration

New Deal democrat has been doing JOLTS reports for a long time. Some of you may understand what NDd is discussing and some may not. Just a quick one liner to help you understand why this is important. JOLTS is a monthly survey of U.S. job vacancies, hiring, and job separations released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. April JOLTS report noisily shows continued deceleration  – by New Deal democrat It is...

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March jobs report: leading sectors turn down, pre-recessionary report still quite positive

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report  – by New Deal democrat Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether manufacturing and temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration in job growth would be apparent. Some of the deceleration or decline...

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Scenes from the blockbuster jobs report 1: in January, nobody* got laid off!

Scenes from the blockbuster jobs report 1: in January, nobody* got laid off! (*hyperbole)  – by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic data until Thursday this week. Meanwhile, there was lots to digest about Friday’s blockbuster jobs report, which I have now done, so I’m going to spend a couple (maybe 3!) days diving in to the details. Today I’ll deal with how seasonality and a very tight labor market were decisively important...

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January jobs report: like a sports car at maximum acceleration

January jobs report: like a sports car at maximum acceleration    – by New Deal democrat My focus on this report was on whether manufacturing and construction jobs turned negative or not, and whether the deceleration apparent in job growth would continue. Both of those were answered emphatically in the negative. Here’s my in depth synopsis. HEADLINES: 517,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 443,000. Government jobs increased...

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