Tag Archives: jobs

I recently retired after working for the same employer for 37 years. My dad also worked ca. 35 years for his employer before retiring, as did my father-in-law. My sister worked for her employer for 40 years. Two of my sisters-in-law worked for their only employer for about that long. My daughter, on the other hand, is on her 4th employer since finishing law school ten years ago. Most folks switch jobs several times during their working years....

– by New Deal democrat Continuing my catching up this week, let’s take a look in some further detail about why I didn’t think Friday’s jobs report portended recession – at least, not yet. As I always point out, the jobs report does contain some leading numbers. These are generally employment in more cyclical industries that, when they turn down, start the cascade into the broader economy. Generally speaking, these are all goods-producing...

 – by New Deal democrat First, a brief programming note. This week is particularly sparse in the new economic data department. The Senior Loan Officer Survey will be reported this afternoon, and on Thursday as usual we get jobless claims. Aside from that, nada. So I might take a day or two off. But I want to spend some time looking more closely at last Friday’s jobs report(s). I use the plural, because last Friday there really were two very...

Liking your present situation right now? Your job, your house, your car, you can keep it and you may have to do so. Buying a new car, house, or getting a different job may be more costly and not pay off. Even if you are not so satisfied, chances maybe you having to manage your pennies and stay put. Making a major economic change today involving costly upgrades, may not be advantageous, right now. Getting far out on a limb in a new job or with...

December jobs report: consistent with a “soft landing,” despite discordance in household data  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:  Whether there is further deceleration in jobs gains compared with the last 6-month average Whether the unemployment rate is neutral or decreasing; or...

An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level  – by New Deal democrat As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to decelerate, and whether the unemployment rate would remain “sticky” at its higher, 3.8%, rate. Two of those three came to pass. The third, jobs growth, emphatically did not! But it may well...

Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the four week average up 10.6%, and continuing claims up 30.8%: Just as importantly, the average for July so far...

Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the four week average up 10.6%, and continuing claims up 30.8%: Just as importantly, the average for July so far...

New Deal democrat has been doing JOLTS reports for a long time. Some of you may understand what NDd is discussing and some may not. Just a quick one liner to help you understand why this is important. JOLTS is a monthly survey of U.S. job vacancies, hiring, and job separations released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. April JOLTS report noisily shows continued deceleration  – by New Deal democrat It is...

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report  – by New Deal democrat Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether manufacturing and temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration in job growth would be apparent. Some of the deceleration or decline...