Tag Archives: November 2023

New Year, same old labor market deceleration  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for November continued the same trend of labor market deceleration that we have seen since the blazing hot boom of 2021. Job openings declined -62,000 to 8.790 million, the lowest level since March 2021. Actual hires fell sharply, by -363,000 to 5.465 million, the lowest since the pandemic lockdown month of April 2020. Quits declined by -157,000...

November jobs report: signs of considerable strength, but warning signs of considerable weakness as well  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that “In tomorrow’s jobs report, my focus will be on whether the data is most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration has been continuing;” and more specifically:  .My expectation, based on real consumer spending, is that there is likely to be...

With this particular American Hospital Association letter, I pulled out the particular points in which the AHA is pointing out and filing complaints. The balance of the letter can be found at the link above, in the title (below), or in the attached PDF file at the end of this post. Unfortunately, it is too long in making its legitimate points. Insurance typically have a delay in payment which is normal fact. Every plan has different rules for...

Why the Index of Leading Indicators failed  – by New Deal democrat I have a post by the above title up at Seeking Alpha. The Index of Leading Indicators has persistently declined for 22 months, and is off by a level that in the past has been consistent with already ongoing, deep recessions. And yet the economy has continued to improve. Clearly there has been a misfire. The above article explains in more detail why I believe this has...

Initial jobless claims confirm benign employment conditions  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -14,000 to 209,000 last week, and the four week moving average declined -750 to 220,000. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims declined -22,000 to 1.840 million: On a YoY basis, both weekly claims and their four week average were up only 4.6%. Continuing claims, which have been much more elevated YoY, were up 24.0%:...

Existing homeowners with 3% mortgages remain frozen in place, as sales fall to a new 28 year low  – by New Deal democrat October marked yet another month in the fully bifurcated housing market, in which most existing homeowners are frozen in place by their 3% mortgages, and buyers have turned to new homes (and in particular condos and apartments) instead. Existing home sales fell yet again, by 16,000 annualized, to 3.79 million, 45% down...

Dan and I would put up holiday salutations each holiday. It was customary for both of us to do so. Many of you, we have known for a long time. We appreciate your reading Angry Bear and your comments to our posts. I hope you all spend have time for family and friends today. Time is fleeting in life. I hope this finds you all well, with friends and family, or with strangers to celebrate. My wife and I were standing in line at a nice...

House resale price indexes confirm upturn in prices for existing homes, but do not negate combined price declines  – by New Deal democrat We got more price information about the very important housing market this morning. Through September, the median price of home resales as measured by Case Shiller increased 0.9% monthly. For the FHFA Index they rose 0.6%. Both measures are up about 46% since just before the pandemic hit (note: FRED hasn’t...