Tag Archives: politics

Biden has been slightly behind Trump in the polls for months.  Still, until now it was easy enough to discern a plausible path to victory.  Democratic voters disappointed with Biden would gradually return to the fold as the choice between Biden and Trump became clear.  Memories of inflation would fade.  Trump would say outrageous things.  A few decent breaks and Biden could pull it out. The debate has changed the math.  Biden has been badly hurt...

The following was a comment posted at Crooks and Liars. One respondent suggested that question #5 was a trick question noting that God and not Moses did the deed. AJ Jacobs Hallelujah! Thank you to my creative friends for all these great Biblical math problems. They’ll really help the Oklahoma school superintendent’s goal of inserting biblical content into math and science! I’ve collected a multitude of the problems into one post for ease of...

 – by New Deal democrat Since tomorrow is the Big Holiday, initial and continuing claims were reported today. [Also, on a programming note, later this morning I will also post about the ISM non-manufacturing survey once it is published, since it now plays an increased role in my forecasting]. Initial claims rose 4,000 last week to 238,000, while the four week average increased 3,250 to 238,500. Continuing claims, with the usual one week delay,...

JOLTS report shows stabilization in almost all metrics for May  – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report for May showed most metrics continued to show a slight rebounding from their March lows. The overall picture for now appears to be one of stabilization, consistent with the fabled “soft landing.” To the data: job openings (blue in the graph below), a soft statistic that is polluted by imaginary, permanent, and trolling listings, rose...

Will Biden drop out?  Should he?  What then? To run or not to run So far Biden seems determined to stay in the presidential race.  He and his campaign have worked hard to tamp down any talk that he might step aside.  Yet there is a reasonable chance he will step aside, especially if his polls drop.  If he stays in and loses, he will have to live with the fact that he lost one of the most consequential elections in American history.  Just as...

There is a lot going on with SCOTUS this year. The death of Chevron diverts decision making from agencies which have an expertise in particular situations to the courts who lack the technical expertise. So now we have Thomas looking back in his crystal ball to see what they were doing in the 18th Century. Roberts believes the justices know more than the scientists and engineers know. This was done in Chevron which agency experts criticized. And...

Struggling to sort out your feelings about the president? So am I. by Paul Waldman The Cross Section The purpose of this piece is not to convince you that Joe Biden should drop out of the race. In fact, I wrote it because I’m not sure if he should, and I think there are millions of people struggling with ambivalent and contradictory thoughts and emotions just as I am. So here are some things to keep in mind — some good, some not so good — as...

One of my favs for legal stuff. Supreme Court rulings on guns, abortion, Constitution: How originalism ate the law. (slate.com) by Dahlia Lithwick SLATE America is being led astray by a small handful of folks who are drunk-driving on originalism—and not in a funny Marx Brothers, spin-around-in-circles-and-all-fall-down sort of way. No, it’s in a children-murdered-in-their-classrooms, women-hemorrhaging-in-parking-lots,...

Elena Kagan Is Horrified by What the Supreme Court Just Did. You Should Be Too. by Mark Stern SLATE Jurisprudence This is part of Opinionpalooza, Slate’s coverage of the major decisions from the Supreme Court this June. Alongside Amicus, we kicked things off this year by explaining How Originalism Ate the Law. The Supreme Court fundamentally altered the way that our federal government functions on Friday, transferring an almost...

The particular tactic used by trump has a name for it. Gish Gallop which is a technique, named after the creationist Duane Gish who employed it, whereby someone argues a cause by hurling as many different half-truths and no-truths into a very short space of time so that their opponent cannot hope to combat each point in real time. This leaves some points unanswered and allows the original speaker to try and claim his opponent lacks the...