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Tag Archives: recession

US recession fears ease: surprisingly strong data on housing, consumer confidence, labor market

Fed Chair Jerome Powell already warned he “may” have two more planned Fed rate increases in the making. Even a Fed comment is enough to stymie a housing market increase. US recession fears ease: surprisingly strong data on housing, consumer confidence, labor market, Financial Review, Vince Golle and Reade Pickert President Joe Biden told donors he thinks the US will avoid a potential recession that economists and banks have long been...

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Industrial production continues to falter in May

Industrial production continues to falter in May  – by New Deal democrat My final update this morning is for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, which has most frequently corresponded with peaks and troughs in economic activity as determined by the NBER. The news for total production was not good, as it declined -0.2% in May, and March and April were revised -0.2% lower each. It remains -0.5% below its recent peak last...

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Soft landing or recession

This is a very short note, prompted by the increasing fears of the default and its consequences, which I think it's greatly exaggerated, and the relatively optimistic views about the effects of monetary tightening. Sure enough, as I noted recently, an adjustment, and lower spending, associated either with an agreement with Congress Republicans (very unlikely) or as contingency plans (14th Amendment of other solutions) are implemented, could certainly through the economy into a recession. But...

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March jobs report: leading sectors turn down, pre-recessionary report still quite positive

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report  – by New Deal democrat Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether manufacturing and temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration in job growth would be apparent. Some of the deceleration or decline...

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They will give us a lead on when the Sahm rule for recessions may be triggered

Initial claims continue in range; why they will give us a lead on when the Sahm rule for recessions may be triggered Initial claims ticked up 2,000 last week to 216,000. The 4 week moving average declined 6,250 to 221,750. Continued claims, with a one week delay, declined 6,000 to 1.670 million: To state the obvious continued good news, it remains the case that almost nobody is getting laid off.  Also continued good news is that claims, and...

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“Recession Watch” now “Recession Warning”

New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators for November 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. It had to happen sooner or later. Earlier this year, based on the long leading indicators, I went on “Recession Watch.” Now, for the first time in a very long time, I have escalated to “Recession Warning.” I believe there is much more than a 50/50 chance of a recession beginning in the next 6...

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October retail sales: consumers: “We’re not dead yet!”

October retail sales: consumers: “We’re not dead yet!”  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales, my favorite consumer indicator, was reported this morning for October. And it was a good number, up +1.3% nominally, and up +0.5% after adjusting for inflation: On the bright side, this was the highest absolute number since April. On the down side, retail sales have still gone essentially nowhere for the last 18 months.  As a result, YoY retail...

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Jobless claims: put the recession on hold! 

Jobless claims: put the recession on hold! (For now) For the last several months, there had been nearly a relentless slow increase in new jobless claims. That trend has broken, at least for now. Initial jobless claims declined by 2,000 to 243,000. The 4 week average, however, increased by 1,500 to 247,000.  Continuing claims declined -19,000 from their 4 month high water mark one week ago to 1,415,000: Claims had been trending almost...

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On track to give recession warning in November

Increasing trend in jobless claims continues; on track to give recession warning in November Initial jobless claims rose another 7,000 to 251,000 last week, an 8 month high. The 4 week average rose 4,500 to 240,500, a 7+ month high.  And continuing claims also rose 51,000 to 1,384,000, which is 78,000 above their 50 year low set on May 21: Three weeks ago I noted that reviewing the entire 50+ year history of initial claims, “there are almost...

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