Tag Archives: sales

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat Let me start with my usual reminder that real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators, because it tells us so much about the state of the consumer, and since consumption leads employment, it is a short leading indicator for that as well. In October retail sales rose 0.4% […] The post Real retail sales jump nicely, but we’re not out of the woods on consumption just yet appeared first on...

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update  – by New Deal democrat The drought in new data ends tomorrow with consumer inflation. In preparation, let’s take a look at real aggregate payrolls. These increased 0.2% in December, one of the lower readings in the past 2 years: On a YoY basis, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls increased 5.8%, compared with consumer inflation in November, which increased 3.1%: Recall that...

Real income continues to set records, while real spending and real total sales falter  – by New Deal democrat Real personal spending faltered in May, and real total sales continued to falter in April, as of this morning’s report; while real personal income continued to be aided by the big decline in gas prices that started a year ago. Let me start with the good news. Real personal income less government transfer receipts is one of the...

Forecast: real manufacturing and trade sales are likely to set a new record for January  – by New Deal democrat One of the four monthly series of coincident indicators most relied upon by the NBER in determining whether the economy is in expansion or recession is Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. A significant problem with it is that reporting of the data seriously lags. For example, the result for January will only be reported more than two...

Despite sharp rebounds in retail sales and manufacturing production, both metrics are on the cusp of being recessionary  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales for January rose strongly in January,up 30% in nominal terms and up 2.4% after accounting for inflation. While that looks great, it only reverses the two downward readings of November and December, and is similar to the reversal last January. This makes me think that there is unresolved...

Real aggregate payrolls and sales There seems to be some pushback against the narrative that real wages have declined, based on compositional effects (lower pay occupations vs. higher pay occupations). While some of that is true (for example, 5/6’s of all leisure and hospitality losses have been recovered, vs. 3.4% actual job *gains* since February 2020 in professional and business services; and a 91% rebound among total payrolls) – it is far less...