Sunday , June 16 2024
Home / The Angry Bear / Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

Summary:
Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update  – by New Deal democrat The drought in new data ends tomorrow with consumer inflation. In preparation, let’s take a look at real aggregate payrolls. These increased 0.2% in December, one of the lower readings in the past 2 years: On a YoY basis, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls increased 5.8%, compared with consumer inflation in November, which increased 3.1%: Recall that over the long term, real aggregate payrolls YoY have been an excellent coincident marker of recession: They have typically made a rounded peak roughly 6 months before its onset. With real aggregate payrolls being up over 2.5% in November, and at a new record, the expansion has remained on solid

Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: , , , ,

This could be interesting, too:

NewDealdemocrat writes May CPI continued to be all about shelter

Eric Kramer writes The costs of stalemate in Ukraine

Bill Haskell writes US Oil Dealing Adds to Energy Dept. Coffers

Bill Haskell writes Baltimore Bridge Reopens

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

 – by New Deal democrat

The drought in new data ends tomorrow with consumer inflation. In preparation, let’s take a look at real aggregate payrolls.

These increased 0.2% in December, one of the lower readings in the past 2 years:

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

On a YoY basis, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls increased 5.8%, compared with consumer inflation in November, which increased 3.1%:

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

Recall that over the long term, real aggregate payrolls YoY have been an excellent coincident marker of recession:

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

They have typically made a rounded peak roughly 6 months before its onset. With real aggregate payrolls being up over 2.5% in November, and at a new record, the expansion has remained on solid footing.

Yesterday I posted another installment of “consumption leads jobs,” so I decided to take a look comparing real retail sales (blue in the graphs below) with real aggregate payrolls. I’ve split it up into three historical segments for better visibility.

Here is 1965 through 1993:

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

Here is 1994 through 2019:

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

And here is the post-pandemic record:

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update

As usual, real retail sales are somewhat noisy, and the relationship is not perfect. But in general, real sales have tended to lead real aggregate payrolls by 1-2 months, especially as a smoothed average. Because of the noise, I don’t think we can use the former to forecast the latter, but because each measure independently has been generally reliable, watching them together will be particularly helpful.

I will update again tomorrow or Friday after the inflation report.

Real aggregate payrolls rise to new high as CPI ex-shelter continues somnolent, Angry Bear, by New Deal democrat.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *