Tag Archives: US EConomics

[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat After two weeks of being highly elevated YoY, initial claims returned to a more “normal” range this week, as except for Florida, hurricane disruptions largely disappeared. For the week initial claims declined -15,000 to 227,000. The four week moving average increased 2,000 to 238,500. With the typical one week delay, […] The post Weekly jobless claims return to near normal appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Trump is promising lots of tariffs if he’s elected. Make no mistake: American consumers pay tariffs, not the exporting country. US consumers will be hit by (a) increased cost of imported goods, and (b) increased cost of domestic goods, as domestic producers raise prices to match imports. Econ 101. Trump is promising to lift taxes […] The post The economics of Trump II appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]He wanted generals like Hitler’s, a leader he sometimes praised. “Do you really believe you’re not loyal to me?” Trump asked then–chief of staff General John Kelly. Kelly was clear: “I’m certainly part of the administration, but my ultimate loyalty is to the rule of law.” October 22, 2024 – by Prof. Heather Cox Richardson […] The post Shifting the burden of supporting the country from the...

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat In the past number of months, I have been looking for a rebalancing of new vs. existing home sales. The sharp increase in mortgage rates beginning in 2022 locked many existing homeowners into their houses, since they could not afford the concomitant increase in mortgage payments that would accrue from […] The post Rebalancing of housing market continues: existing home sales down, inventory up, price growth...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Getting the vote out has been a big factor in voting. Much of voting today is done via mail. The U.S. Postal Services plays a large role in making sure votes are delivered on time. The graph below is from the September 30, 2024 review of the USPS performance resulting from the America Plan. A […] The post U.S. Postal Service’s Delivering for America Plan appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]When I was growing up, I viewed being a physician as the zenith of achievement for someone interested in science. That changed when I got to college and became interested in research. I realized I didn’t have the temperament for a physician (OK, maybe a radiologist or a pathologist) and I became a lab rat. […] The post The economics of medicine: personal reflections appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Results taken from Company Reports: “GM Releases 2024 First-Quarter Results and Raises Full-Year Guidance,” General Motors Company GM Story Reported by William Gavin at Quartz: beats Wall Street’s expectations again for third-quarter earnings and raised its outlook for the full year GM is having a great year as it posts Q3 earnings beat General Motors […] The post GM Releases 2024 First-Quarter Results appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat One of the well-established long leading indicators is corporate profits. Typically they peak a year or more before the onset of a recession. And the reason makes sense: if there is profit pressure that lasts longer than a single quarter, i.e., it looks like it may be forming a trend, […] The post Are corporate profits stalling in Q3? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat This week is another light one for economic data, so let me discuss a couple of points explaining why I am cautious, but not DOOOMing. Basically, because there are a lot of asterisks. Today let me follow up on initial jobless claims. The typical best way to look at these is […] The post A closer look at (why I’m not terribly concerned by) the recent elevated initial claims appeared first on Angry Bear.

– by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Newsletter NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables...