Tag Archives: US EConomics

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I discussed how virtually the entire issue of inflation remaining above the Fed’s target was the housing sector. Let me start today’s post where I left off yesterday: namely, that the net level of divergence between total headline inflation and shelter inflation of 1.15% is one of the highest such divergences in history, and the longest such big divergence. Here again is the graph: Today I want to discuss...

by Steve Roth Wealth Economics This post is prompted by Matthew Klein’s (very wonky) post about recent changes in QE/QT, and the Fed’s balance sheet. It prompted me to do a quick calculation that I’ve been meaning to get to: when household wealth increases (due to stock-market price runups or really anything else), what effect does that have on household spending in the next year? I’m going to start with a bald two-part claim. A. The...

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no economic news of significance until Wednesday’s report on existing home sales. But in the meantime I’ve read a number of takes slicing and dicing last week’s inflation report that I thought missed the mark, so let me take the opportunity today and tomorrow to discuss the essence of the US’s consumer inflation situation. Basically it is almost *all* about shelter.  Take almost any of the graphs, charts, and...

 by Elise Gould EPI Average hourly wage growth has exceeded inflation for 12 straight months, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics data released this morning. This real (or inflation-adjusted) wage growth is a key indicator of how well the average worker’s wage can improve their standard of living. As inflation continues to normalize, I’m optimistic more workers will experience real gains in their purchasing power. The dark blue line...

This report dropped into my email box a day or so ago. It hits upon a topic which has plagued big cities since before I was a child. Early-on in Chicago, urban renewal was the thought to be the right idea and the wrong concept. Public housing development in Chicago, Illinois. Cabrini-Green was a model of successful public housing. Poor planning, physical deterioration, and managerial neglect, coupled with gang violence, drugs, and chronic...

 – by New Deal democrat With this week’s inflation report for April, we can update several measures of the real economic status of average American workers, as well as their forecast for further job and economic gains. First, here is real average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers. In April, nominal average wages increased 0.2%. Since consumer inflation increased 0.3%, real nonsupervisory wages declined -0.1%, the third monthly decline in...

I was a graduate student in a STEM program when Reagan was elected and the Laffer curve was used to justify tax cuts. The problem that immediately stood out to me at the time was that neither the ordinate nor the abscissa in the Laffer graph had scales, so it was impossible to assess where, exactly, the inflection point occurred. Based on the symmetrical drawing, we’re meant to infer that a 50% tax rate is the point after which government revenue...

 – by New Deal democrat This morning, I pointed out that manufacturing production is -1.8% below its 2022 high and may be in a slightly declining trend. Which means that added attention has to be paid to whether the other leading production sector, construction, is holding up.  Instead, this morning brought the first sustained evidence that housing units under construction, the “real” economic measure of the residential building sector, which...

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Here is today’s update on one of my favorite indicators: retail sales. In April they were unchanged on a nominal basis. Adjusted for inflation they declined -0.3% for the month. They are also down -6.2% from their 2021 peak and -2.9% since January 2023: On a YoY basis, they have also returned to the negative side, down -0.3% (note two graphs below adds 0.3% to show at the zero line): Here is...

My wife drives a 21 year-old Pontiac Vibe (= Toyota Matrix). It could fail at any time, and the question of what she’ll replace it with is on our minds. EV or hybrid? I personally know some Tesla owners who are happy with their choice, but I remain concerned about range and charging stations. Thanks, Elon, for warning me off EVs!“The day before Elon Musk fired virtually all of Tesla’s electric-vehicle charging division last month, they had high hopes...