Tag Archives: US EConomics

[unable to retrieve full-text content]There are a huge number of anomalies and biases which can be understood as confusing the claims that the probability of p conditional on q is high if the conditional probability of q conditional on p is high.  One is diagnostic expectations – the conditional probability that a person has red hair if the person […] The post Direction of Implication of high probability appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat I suspect that both hurricanes as well as mortgage rates somewhat distorted all of the housing reports for October. Last week with existing home sales I noted that “While sales remained in range, price appreciation increased and the pace of inventory accumulation decreased.“ There was something of a mirror image […] The post It’s not just corporate profits, the long leading housing sector is also...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]An explanation of over-reaction to new data starts with a principal agent model. The idea is that the forecasts are made by agents who are trying to impress people who pay for the forecasts.  Another, and more important, case is that of professional money managers who are investing other people’s money and trying to convince […] The post Over-reaction to new data. What have you done for me lately ? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]I’ve read where Musk and Ramaswami are proposing a 75% cut in the federal workforce. That’s absurd. • National security-related agencies account for roughly 70% of the civilian workforce. The largest employers were the Department of Veterans Affairs, with 487,000 workers, followed by the armed services, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Justice Department. […] The post Federal worker cuts are mostly not gonna happen...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]If you have been reading New Deal democrat all along, you will remember NDd’s commentary on October 23rd (the link is below) discussing the possible stall of corporate profits. Maybe it is an easy call and maybe not. There are negatives to corporate profits stalling. Read on . . .  – by New Deal democrat […] The post The long leading indicator of corporate profit growth stalled in Q3 appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat Let me start to update this week’s data with jobless claims. Initial claims fell another -2,000 to 213,000, the lowest since last May. The four-week moving average declined -1,250 to 217,000, also a six-month low. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.907 million: As with one […] The post Jobless claims continue to signal moderate expansion appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Consumer Price Index as taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I have done “nothing” to alter this report. This was not a bad report. People are reacting to past issues with pricing and costs. Unless Trump is bluffing with his tariff’s threats, I would expect some major increases in prices and costs as countries […] The post Consumer Price Index – October 2024 appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Made in America returns! Consumer-goods supplier Reckitt Benckiser is looking to respond faster to shifts in demand for over-the-counter pharmaceuticals by moving more of its manufacturing to the U.S., its largest market. Reckitt is investing $200 million into a factory in Wilson, N.C., that it acquired last month, part of an effort to rewire its supply chain […] The post Coming to America . . . More Manufacturing appeared first on Angry...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Brief commentary by Dr. Kahn who is in the thick of the discussion on Medicare Advantage Costs. Health Justice Monitor, Medicare Advantage Overpayment >$100 Billion, Jim (James G.) Kahn, MD, MPH Summary: Physicians for a National Health Program released a valuable summary of Medicare Advantage overpayments. The scope and scale is breathtaking: $100 billion annual payoff […] The post Payments to Medicare Advantage Plans is More Than What is...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]November 25, 2024 By Heather Cox Richardson Letters from an American Today, President Joe Biden laid out very clearly the argument behind the economic policies his administration has put into place. He writes . . . “When I took office, the pandemic was raging and the economy was reeling. From Day One, I was determined […] The post Investing in People soon to be the One – Percenters appeared first on Angry Bear.