Tag Archives: US EConomics

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Jobless claims: neutral – with an extra grain of salt  – by New Deal democrat As I cautioned last weekend in my “Weekly Indicators” update, we have entered that period of the year where Holiday seasonality means take everything with at least a little grain of salt. For example, this year Thanksgiving was almost one […] The post Jobless claims: neutral appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The population is on a path to shrink and the majority of the population will be elderly in some fashion or another shortly. US productivity is based on inputs from Labor without which there could be declines in such without younger Labor. The nation populated in the past is not on a path of replacement […] The post Uncertainty is nothing new for DACA recipients appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac are the nicknames for two mortgage giants that back about 70% of U.S. mortgages and have been under government conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t issue mortgages directly. They purchase loans from lenders and package them into securities sold to investors. This process ensures […] The post Trump vs Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]ISM non-manufacturing shows that services continue to power the economy forward. Are they inflationary?  – by New Deal democrat Because services are roughly 3/4’s of the economy, I now pay a lot of attention to the economically weighted average of the ISM manufacturing and services indexes. Since the accession of China to normal trading status […] The post Services Continue to Power the Economy Forward. Are they inflationary?...

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. It also is a slight leading indicators for both initial jobless claims and unemployment; and for forecasting wage growth as well.  Like many other statistics concerning jobs, the […] The post JOLTS report for October: continuing trend of deceleration has begun to pose a problem...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The question being asked by the Economist Claudia Sahm “Why is Growth So Good . . . “ I did not add the YouTube of Economist Claudia Sahm. You will have to catch it on her site for which some of her commentaries can be read and presented elsewhere, . , , hence it is […] The post Growth is Good, How do we keep it? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Strong demand because people had money to spend when they would have had nothing if the ARP was not put into play. By the same token, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was targeting the upper 1% of the taxpayers with the next 4% tagging along. It in itself was ~$2 trillion much of which […] The post “strong demand, no question . . . “ appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data begins with the ISM manufacturing index, and with a one month delay, construction spending. Because manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, and was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three […] The post ISM manufacturing remains weak, while construction spending continues...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Medicare Advantage Plans are notorious for denying healthcare treatments to plan subscribers. CMS is intervening by making a much-needed change to how Medicare Advantage plans decides on treatments needed by plan subscribers. Just a couple of pointers showing how MA has been serving it customers . . . the public. In the existing MA bidding […] The post It will be up to the incoming Trump administration to decide appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat Let me finish catching up this week with a quick look at personal income and spending, which were reported on Wednesday. The “big” takeaway I’ve seen elsewhere is that inflation picked up, and maybe will complicate the Fed’s task. But I don’t see where it’s such a big deal. The […] The post Real personal income and spending for October were all good; no special cause for concern...