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Atlanta Fed now forecasts negative second quarter GDP growth. Bond yields coming down. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/ Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/
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Atlanta Fed now forecasts negative second quarter GDP growth. Bond yields coming down. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/ Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/
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| Atlanta Fed now forecasts negative second quarter GDP growth. Bond yields coming down. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/ Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/ |
"Bond yields coming down" – thats one way of saying the FED is buying debt. Boy, you sure are clueless Mike. Havnt changed a bit.
Fed needs to get more hawkish. If bond yields come down its going to be a tailwind for inflation especially in real estate.
I'm pretty sure yields are coming down to actually protect the real estate market.
Supply in real estate is up 20-25% as of late.
If you let yields rise, mortgage rates (which are derived from yields) will rise.
Hence, supply/volume could possible go up by 40-50% in a VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME.
@Marc Rover Yeah. They just can't let those damn peasants ever have a shot at owning a home.
total useless analysis
You don't understand what is being said
@Falino Luiz I don't want to, because he flip flops anyways
SPY 310…
That is a low end target. 330-340 more likely after this bounce ends
@Punch_Bowl_Turd My targets are straight technical analysis. The news follows the charts, not the other way around. Or I guess a better way of putting it is the news is a non factor SHORT term in the market. I have SPY hitting minimum 400 in July, possibly 412-415 resistance and then a 20% fall to 330-340. Then the most epic melt up of our lifetimes as the dollar goes to shit.
@Traders Paradigm if 1 thing is for sure regardless of news, technicals, predictions & targets is this is a great time for covered calls. as far as the dollar powell is gonna somehow stablize it with fed now or fed coin? lol cant wait to see how that works.
i understand next yr is gonna be the released of the FED COIN CBDC… what a great scheme to implement it by getting everyone on it by unemploying & starving them into it.
There is supposedly still some negotiations with that asshole Manchin.
private sector does it create wealth anymore or is everything dependent on the gubbamant comrade?
So… who’s buying government debt? I mean, it’s a great deal getting 3% return while inflation is at 8.6%. Japan 2.0!
Has nothing to do with anything, the inflation youre talking about has absolutely nothing to do with treasury bond buyers, who are big buisnesses on wall street and other governments. The utility of a treasury is not to hedge inflation at all, inflation of prices in markets is a good thing btw, but still has nothing to do with it.
I will look at my stocks the end of august
Mike, you actually predicted the likelihood of Biden running a surplus in your video on 29/12/2020.
Out of interest, where does the money go if the Government doesn't spend/re-distribute it? To reduce the debt? Is that observable in the data? Is this significant enough to have an impact on The Fed's payments to service the debt?
There is no money, its generated when a spending bill passes and treasury creates new bonds, and big buisnesses and other countries buy em. The Fed isnt the one paying the debt, the government uses tax revenues and other income sources to pay the interest. The debt can be paid but it serves no point when you want a growing economy
@Menneh Gambia You didn't answer the question: "where does the money go?" There is a double entry transaction somewhere. That's what I'm interested in.
@Cryptonite Clark No its not, its created, issued on the spot. Read my comment again and do some research, I was kind enough to answer you twice now chillout
Good work Mike, why does everyone call the deficit debt. They print the money, its not debt, who do you pay back. The printing press, the computer?
The government finances all its debt via taxes and bonds, so it is debt and it has to be paid back.
Great tradeable call for July 1st with dow +300- you were proved right again!!
The four SS were tradable in the past?
I still don't understand how demand of treasuries could be outpacing supply by THIS MUCH when it's 8 days before the next (almost CERTAIN) rate hike.
Even if a reduced deficit = reduced supply, it still doesn't make sense.
This is like going to buy a car, and, you learn that next week the car will be on sale by 20%.
Nobody would buy the car that day.
I hope you can live at least 200 years and keep making these videos, Mike! Thanks so much for sharing your wisdom with us.
I've thought about this some more, and I have to say, your theory that, "Yields are down because US Treasury is limiting securities supply (due to lack of spending/deficit creation)" is incorrect.
Obviously, limiting spending will affect yields to some degree.
But, the amount of securities being sold by the treasury has been coming down at a consistent rate for awhile now.
And, last month, yields were BLOWING THROUGH THE ROOF.
Personally, I suspect crashing yields are being catalyzed from the real estate derivatives market.
If memory serves, last month, the Treasury Sold roughly 25 billion in 10 year securities. (That is the security which mortgage rates are derived from.)
And, the derivatives market on REAL ESTATE ALONE is 40-80 TRILLION.
Hence, if "certain funds" have HUGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY in REAL ESTATE DERIVATIVES, WHY NOT make SURE RATES STAY LOW? If you can protect & promote a 1-2 trillion dollar investment, by spending 10 billion on securities, why not do this? (In a "backdoor" manner?)
Mortgage rates were RISING FAST last month, and now the SUPPLY OF HOMES/REAL ESTATE on the MARKET IS UP 20%.
My theory is the only thing that makes sense.