Friday , January 22 2021
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Dollar’s fundamentals continue negative.

Summary:
Current reality for the dollar is bearish. Rising fiscal expansion and trade deficit. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/mmt-trader/?s2-ssl=yes/ Download my podcasts! New one every week. https://www.buzzsprout.com/1105286 Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman

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Current reality for the dollar is bearish. Rising fiscal expansion and trade deficit. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/mmt-trader/?s2-ssl=yes/ Download my podcasts! New one every week. https://www.buzzsprout.com/1105286 Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Dollar's fundamentals continue negative.
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

18 comments

  1. In an effort to shore up the economy a great deal of money has been unleashed into the economy and it went chasing after stocks, keeping it from triggering hyperinflation. Thus we have the truly bizarre combination of a record-high stock market along with record-high bankruptcies, foreclosures and evictions. At some point confidence in the stock market will evaporate and all of this notional money will go chasing after anything that isn't made of paper (with the possible exception of toilet paper). Much of this notional money will evaporate as people liquidate their stock holdings, but enough will remain to result in hoarding and hyperinflation. The US dollar will devalue internationally and the US will lose access to imports.

  2. Collapse is bad enough when you and everyone around you can acknowledge it. But if everyone from the president (pick either one) to the lowliest convenience store clerk is incapable of accepting it as real and thinking through some of the immediate consequences, that makes it much, much worse.

  3. Hi Mike, sorry if you already addressed this but I'm wanting to know if the treasury course will give me the insights into the fiscal flows you mention in your videos please?

  4. Hey Mike , did you know a trader Oscar Carboni when you worked on the exchange ??

  5. Love your podcasts. It’s a great listen for a hour. Thank you for your insights.

  6. Mazel Tov

  7. Just a middle aged bloke

    Hi Mike. I am getting nervous. I'm a big believer that history may not repeat but it rhymes in financial markets. I only invest on the XJO and using my online brokers chart package I like to watch the long term price action of the XJO using bollinger bands set at 200 day MA and 2 standard deviations above and below the 200 day. I check it using daylies, weeklies and monthlies. It tells a story. My brokers online packge does not allow for this type of tech analysis on off shore indices or companies so I have been content to use the SPY chart which is an SP500 index fund traded on the asx. But this is not that accurate as it doesn't account for AUD vs USD FX fluctuations (its just priced in AUD). Not sure why I havent done it before but just recently thought I'd do a basic google search for free chart packages for the SP500 and I found this from the financial times https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/charts?s=INX:IOM
    Its an ugly story Im afraid. run the bollinger bands at the settings I suggested. the monthlies are the UGLIEST BY FAR. Based on them SP500 is trading so far ABOVE the 2 SD barrier ABOVE the 200 day MA it doesnt bare thinking about. Put it this way, looking at the chart, the last time it did this for any length of time was JUST BEFORE TECHWRECK 1. Using the weeklies paints a slightly better picture but still UGLY. S&P is STILL TRADING WELL ABOVE THE 2 SD ABOVE THE 200 DAY MA. History says mean reversion is inevitable, at least to the 2 SD line above the 200 day, which is around 3450. But a mean reversion to the 50 day, which it also often does from these heights will see it around 3180. A bigger mean reversion back to the 200 day, sees it back at around 2825 mark. The only saving grace at the moment is running the daylies. Based on that S&P is still trading BELOW 2 SDs above the 200 day. That 2 SD barrier is around the 3780 mark. Remeber Mike ALL the fundamentals u talk about SHOW UP IN THE PRICE. SO THE LONG TERM PRICE CHART TELLS A VERY IMPORTANT STORY!

  8. Just a middle aged bloke

    Mike I think on a risk reward basis the time is probz very close where u might sell index futures to hedge your portfolio! U can also buy some index calls to further hedge the short futures position. Joe has been Biden his time but his time is a' comin and he wont be as friendly to the big corporates and therefore the markets as the Trumpstar! One example, what if he repeals the Trumpstar's corporate tax cuts?? Corprate earnings would drop, market has a hissy fit?? History will rhyme again Mike, we just need the catalyst! President Joe Biden and his socialist cohorts could be it???

  9. Congrats Nonno

  10. Congratulations, great vids!!

  11. Congratulations!

  12. ill be surprised if spending keeps going higher , i cant see it happening with mitch being stingy on everything

  13. Well sentiment was actually a great indicator at the March Bottom… Those tax flows will degrade AFTER a top (market will 'anticipate').

  14. Bravo grandpa Norman!

  15. Congrats Mike! 🥳

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