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Inverted yield curve insanity.

Summary:
More than five years in, no recession and growth still strong, they’re still saying the inverted yield curve is forecasting recession. 

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More than five years in, no recession and growth still strong, they’re still saying the inverted yield curve is forecasting recession. 
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

19 comments

  1. 👍🇺🇸

  2. @eatlaughandstupid4430

    love your videos Mike. Thank you.

  3. Excellent points.

  4. Hey Mike since the Debt is Net transfers (1) Why is there interest payments on it that they say is unsustainable? Example: They say of the 800+ billion Obama stimulus plan that %33 of that was interest payments to China.If true why pay a higher interest for that Net Transfer?(2) National Debt being net asset transfers to the public and foreign countries are you referring to the dollars only or the hard physical assets purchased with those (debt) net transfer dollars or both as assets?

  5. Deficits recorded since Treasury established 1789

  6. Jamie Dimon's guru status is pitiful

  7. Great video! What I have heard is that recessions happen after the curve un-inverts. We are still inverted. I would be interested in learning what the un-inversion will look like and when it is likely to happen. Thank you.

  8. Thanks for the updates Mike.

  9. @cyberpunkalphamale

    Use the implied 10y-2y MBS spread for the real yield curve, courtesy of George Robertson and Ritik Goyal. Whalepool loves you Mike.

  10. @barrymcbrush5452

    Great job Mike!

  11. If Yellen stopped buying long term debt with short term T-bills it would instantly un-invert.

  12. This guy is nuts.

  13. Wake up Mike, they know. They just don't want the masses to know.

  14. @cryptoniteclark

    I get your point about the inverted yield curve, but the article is wrong. Watch the inventor's, Campbell Harvey, interviews on youtube where he describes the criteria. Most people use the wrong timeframes – it should be US10Y-US03MY. It hasn't turned positive yet, and hasn't produced a false signal before. Coincidentally, he has been making very similar predictions to you for a few years. He also says that the Fed is wrong about inflation, that it should base its decisions on real data, and that interest rates are too high. I always found it interesting that even though you and he come from such different perspectives, your conclusions are very similar.

  15. The inverted yield has never been wrong in predicting a recession. You, on the other hand, have been wrong multiple times. As a rational person, who am I to trust more? The guy who pretends to be an economist, or the hard numbers?

  16. Interest rates are up in anticipation of inflation. The yield curve is a signal reflecting lack of available short term liquidity.

    Without more savings or Fed cash inflation injections, the yield curve points to refinance risk across all markets. Tick tock.

  17. @heinodersanger9809

    Isn't the yield curve inverted for 2 years? Why is he saying 5 years?

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