Monday , November 25 2024
Home / The Angry Bear / Further evidence of real declines since summer

Further evidence of real declines since summer

Summary:
House price indexes decline, unchanged in October; further evidence of real declines since summer The Case Shiller national house price index declined another -0.3% in November, and is now up 9.2% YoY, compared with a peak of +20.8% YoY in March (note that is in line with my rule of thumb that a decline of 1/2 or more in YoY growth over the past 12 months indicates a series has peaked and rolled over). The FHFA purchase only house price index was unchanged for the month, and is up 9.7% YoY (vs. its peak of +19.7% in February, so also is in decline per my rule of thumb): Here’s an update of the FHFA house price index YoY (/2 for scale) vs. Owners’ Equivalent Rent in the CPI: Because OER follows house prices with roughly a 12 month lag, I

Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: , , ,

This could be interesting, too:

Joel Eissenberg writes Undocumented labor: solutions, not scapegoating

Bill Haskell writes ACA Market Place Subsidies

NewDealdemocrat writes October existing home sales: a pause, or possibly reversal, in the rebalancing trend

Angry Bear writes U.S. Defense Spending

House price indexes decline, unchanged in October; further evidence of real declines since summer

The Case Shiller national house price index declined another -0.3% in November, and is now up 9.2% YoY, compared with a peak of +20.8% YoY in March (note that is in line with my rule of thumb that a decline of 1/2 or more in YoY growth over the past 12 months indicates a series has peaked and rolled over).

Further evidence of real declines since summer

The FHFA purchase only house price index was unchanged for the month, and is up 9.7% YoY (vs. its peak of +19.7% in February, so also is in decline per my rule of thumb):

Further evidence of real declines since summer

Here’s an update of the FHFA house price index YoY (/2 for scale) vs. Owners’ Equivalent Rent in the CPI:

Further evidence of real declines since summer

Because OER follows house prices with roughly a 12 month lag, I expect OER to continue to increase YoY for a few more months before declining steeply probably beginning next spring. Note also that the most recent FHFA and Case Shiller report is for Octobe,, so this month’s YoY change is probably closer to about 6%.

“November housing permits and starts: the biggest news is not even a headline, Angry Bear, angry bear blog”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *