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Industrial production on the verge of exceeding pre-pandemic level

Summary:
Industrial production on the verge of exceeding pre-pandemic level Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. It is the single datum that most frequently coincides with the NBER determination of the beginning and end of recessions. In May, total production increased +0.8%. Manufacturing production increased +0.9%. Both current readings are the highest since the onset of the pandemic: Figure 1 Total production is only 1.4% below its February 2020 level, and manufacturing production is a mere 0.3% below that level. If there is another positive report next month, exceeding the February 2020 level, and Q2 GDP is as positive as has been forecast, then the NBER may well decide that the pandemic recession has officially ended

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Industrial production on the verge of exceeding pre-pandemic level

Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. It is the single datum that most frequently coincides with the NBER determination of the beginning and end of recessions.


In May, total production increased +0.8%. Manufacturing production increased +0.9%. Both current readings are the highest since the onset of the pandemic:


Industrial production on the verge of exceeding pre-pandemic levelFigure 1

Total production is only 1.4% below its February 2020 level, and manufacturing production is a mere 0.3% below that level.


If there is another positive report next month, exceeding the February 2020 level, and Q2 GDP is as positive as has been forecast, then the NBER may well decide that the pandemic recession has officially ended (with the most likely trough date being set at April of last year).

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