Friday , June 25 2021
Home / The Angry Bear / Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak

Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak

Summary:
Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak The last of the 4 monthly coincident markers for whether the economy is in recession vs. expansion was reported this morning for April. Let’s take a look. In nominal terms, personal income declined -13.1%, taking back most, not by no means all, of March’s big 20.7% gain. After taking inflation into account, in real terms, it declined -13.7%. Meanwhile, nominal personal spending increased 0.5%, but in real terms declined -0.1%, barely touching March’s 4.0% gain: An issue came up at Seeking Alpha about why I believe that demand-driven inflation will be transitory. The above graph shows why. After 2020’s big stimulus package, real personal

Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: , , ,

This could be interesting, too:

run75441 writes A “Summer Rerun – The Victory of Privilege”

Barkley Rosser writes Will Tether Bring All The Cryptocurrencies Way Down?

run75441 writes Producer Prices Rises 0.8% in May

NewDealdemocrat writes Coronavirus dashboard for June 17: big progress since 1 year ago; big “Delta” challenge still ahead

Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak

The last of the 4 monthly coincident markers for whether the economy is in recession vs. expansion was reported this morning for April. Let’s take a look.


In nominal terms, personal income declined -13.1%, taking back most, not by no means all, of March’s big 20.7% gain. After taking inflation into account, in real terms, it declined -13.7%. Meanwhile, nominal personal spending increased 0.5%, but in real terms declined -0.1%, barely touching March’s 4.0% gain:


Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak

An issue came up at Seeking Alpha about why I believe that demand-driven inflation will be transitory. The above graph shows why. After 2020’s big stimulus package, real personal spending increased sharply, and then the effect

completely dissipated over a few months. It appears that the same is already happening this year. Which would only leave supply-side temporary bottlenecks in production as sources of continued inflation.


Below I’ve take the same data as above and normed both to 100 as of February 2020:


Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak

Both real income and spending are above their pre-recession levels. Simply put, in this crisis decisive action by the government to put cash in consumers’ hands has worked.


But the “official” recession vs. expansion metric is real personal income less transfer receipts (things like unemployment insurance), shown below:’


Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak

This too is now above its pre-recession levels. Although I won’t post a graph, this joins real sales making up all of its lost recession ground. But the two most important metrics – industrial production and employment – still have a ways to go.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *