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Tag Archives: personal income

January personal income and spending: Goldilocks is knocking at the door

January personal income and spending: Goldilocks is knocking at the door  – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow, because it nets out the impacts of higher interest rates and abating inflation due to the unlinking of the supply chain. Because real personal spending on services for the past 50 years has generally risen even during recessions, the more leading...

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A mixed picture on real personal income, savings, and spending in March, and real total sales in February

A mixed picture on real personal income, savings, and spending in March, and real total sales in February  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve indicated a number of times recently, right now I consider the report on personal income and spending co-equal to the employment report as the most important monthly data. For March, it was a mixed bag. Nominally, personal income rose 0.3%, and personal spending was unchanged. Because the applicable...

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Strong upward revisions push real personal income to new highs

Strong upward revisions push real personal income to new highs, put 2 important coincident indicators firmly in expansion territory  – by New Deal democrat Almost all of the news in this morning’s release for personal income and spending for January was positive. Nominally, personal income rose +0.6% and personal spending rose 1.8%. The deflator also rose +0.6%, making real personal income close to unchanged, and real spending (after...

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June personal income and spending show pandemic cushion approaching depletion

[unable to retrieve full-text content]June personal income and spending show pandemic cushion approaching depletion How well personal income and spending held up throughout the pandemic is one of the best things about the government response. For June, nominal personal income increased 0.1%. After inflation, however, it decreased -0.4%. Nominal personal spending increased 1.0%. After inflation, it still increased 0.5%. […] The post June personal income and spending show pandemic...

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Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak

Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak The last of the 4 monthly coincident markers for whether the economy is in recession vs. expansion was reported this morning for April. Let’s take a look. In nominal terms, personal income declined -13.1%, taking back most, not by no means all, of March’s big 20.7% gain. After taking inflation into account, in real terms, it declined -13.7%....

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February personal income and spending decline

February personal income and spending decline: the back end of January stimulus payments Last month I wrote that the:“report on January personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enacted by the federal government both last spring and last month have been to sustaining the economy.”The truth of that was confirmed on the back end in this morning’s report for February, in which January’s 10% increase in income was...

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Not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession

Real personal spending declines in December, while income rises; not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession This morning’s report on personal income and spending for December reversed the pattern we have seen all during the second half of 2020. After rebounding strongly for 6 months, real personal spending (blue in the graph below) declined for the month by -0.2%, and is 3.6% below its February peak. Meanwhile real personal income (red),...

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Not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession

Real personal spending declines in December, while income rises; not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession This morning’s report on personal income and spending for December reversed the pattern we have seen all during the second half of 2020. After rebounding strongly for 6 months, real personal spending (blue in the graph below) declined for the month by -0.2%, and is 3.6% below its February peak. Meanwhile real personal income (red),...

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