Wednesday , October 30 2024
Home / The Angry Bear / Comparing This Weeks Jobless claims to Last Summer

Comparing This Weeks Jobless claims to Last Summer

Summary:
Jobless claims hold their ground against the most challenging comparisons of last summer  – by New Deal democrat This week completed the most challenging YoY comparisons with last summer. Recall that I suspect there may be some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in these numbers, as this year’s increase starting in late spring has been close to a mirror image of last year’s increase. So if there is some real new weakness in jobless claims, the last three weeks were the most likely times it would show up. And the result this week was not too bad. Initial claims declined -10,000 to 235,000. The four week average increased 250 to 235,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -9,000 to 1.851 million: More

Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: ,

This could be interesting, too:

Joel Eissenberg writes The Administrative state

Angry Bear writes Taxes, Postage, and Medicare Updates

Angry Bear writes Why has the inverted yield curve failed? A fundamentals-based explanation

NewDealdemocrat writes Rebalancing of the housing market, new home sales edition: sales increase, prices firm

Jobless claims hold their ground against the most challenging comparisons of last summer

 – by New Deal democrat

This week completed the most challenging YoY comparisons with last summer. Recall that I suspect there may be some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in these numbers, as this year’s increase starting in late spring has been close to a mirror image of last year’s increase. So if there is some real new weakness in jobless claims, the last three weeks were the most likely times it would show up.

And the result this week was not too bad. Initial claims declined -10,000 to 235,000. The four week average increased 250 to 235,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -9,000 to 1.851 million:

Comparing This Weeks Jobless claims to Last Summer

More importantly, on a YoY basis weekly claims were up a slight 1.7% (4,000), and the four week average was unchanged. Continuing claims were up 4.9%, still close to their recent YoY low comparisons:

Comparing This Weeks Jobless claims to Last Summer

This is a neutral result compared with the most challenging comparisons of last summer. Specifically, it does not suggest a recession in the near future.

Finally, looking ahead to next week’s unemployment rate for July, we see that the monthly numbers were about equal to June’s but higher than earlier this year:

Comparing This Weeks Jobless claims to Last Summer

This suggests some further upward pressure on the unemployment rate in coming months (recalling that the big wave of immigration in the last several years is almost certainly distorting that comparison upward). It’s possible the “Sahm rule” will be triggered as a result, but recall that the comparison rate for that rule is also going to increase 0.1% this month as well.

The Bonddad Blog

Increasing Jobless Claims Resulting from Seasonality? Angry Bear by New Deal democrat

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *