by [unable to retrieve full-text content]There is an approach to cognitive psychology and modelling beliefs and forecasts which is natural for economists and very misleading. The assumptions are that we have a complete set of subjective probabilities updated with Bayes’ formula, that for any possible combination of events we have a belief about the probability that they will occur and […] The post A Complete Set of Subjective Probabilities, Bayes’ Formula, Overconfidence and Over-reaction to new information appeared first on Angry Bear.
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There is an approach to cognitive psychology and modelling beliefs and forecasts which is natural for economists and very misleading. The assumptions are that we have a complete set of subjective probabilities updated with Bayes’ formula, that for any possible combination of events we have a belief about the probability that they will occur and […]
The post A Complete Set of Subjective Probabilities, Bayes’ Formula, Overconfidence and Over-reaction to new information appeared first on Angry Bear.