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[unable to retrieve full-text content]There is an approach to cognitive psychology and modelling beliefs and forecasts which is natural for economists and very misleading. The assumptions are that we have a complete set of subjective probabilities updated with Bayes’ formula, that for any possible combination of events we have a belief about the probability that they will occur and […] The post A Complete Set of Subjective Probabilities, Bayes’ Formula, Overconfidence and Over-reaction to new information appeared first on Angry Bear.
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Robert Waldmann considers the following as important: Featured Stories, US/Global Economics
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[unable to retrieve full-text content][unable to retrieve full-text content]There is an approach to cognitive psychology and modelling beliefs and forecasts which is natural for economists and very misleading. The assumptions are that we have a complete set of subjective probabilities updated with Bayes’ formula, that for any possible combination of events we have a belief about the probability that they will occur and […] The post A Complete Set of Subjective Probabilities, Bayes’ Formula, Overconfidence and Over-reaction to new information appeared first on Angry Bear.
Topics:
Robert Waldmann considers the following as important: Featured Stories, US/Global Economics
This could be interesting, too:
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There is an approach to cognitive psychology and modelling beliefs and forecasts which is natural for economists and very misleading. The assumptions are that we have a complete set of subjective probabilities updated with Bayes’ formula, that for any possible combination of events we have a belief about the probability that they will occur and […]
The post A Complete Set of Subjective Probabilities, Bayes’ Formula, Overconfidence and Over-reaction to new information appeared first on Angry Bear.