The Angry Bear

December 17, 2023, Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson It seems that former president Donald Trump is aligning his supporters with a global far-right movement to destroy democracy.  On Saturday, in Durham, New Hampshire, Trump echoed Nazi leader Adolf Hitler’s attacks on immigrants, saying they are “poisoning the blood of our country”—although two of his three wives were immigrants—and quoted Russian president Vladimir...

Have wages “really” increased since before the pandemic?  – by New Deal democrat All of the remaining 2023 data – housing sales and construction, and personal income and spending, as well as the Index of Leading Indicators – will be reported this week. After Christmas, only initial claims will be reported next week. Today there is no significant data. But over the weekend, a little tiff erupted on another site that I read, about whether real...

Bruce Webb introduced the Social Security Northwest Plan in 2009.  He credited Arne and Dale as co-authors.  The NW Plan only increases payroll taxes if increases are needed.  For years before 2009 Bruce had confidence that forecasts were too pessimistic, but he was convinced by Arne to consider a plan that included triggers.  Arne’s solution was overly complicated, but Dale Coberly showed that a permanent solution could be had by simply increasing...

Dale Coberly discusses an article written by Andrew Biggs “No, Social Security Isn’t ‘Earned’,” WSJ [Dear reader: this is very long. It had to be to refute all the claims made by the author of the WSJ op ed.  You don’t have to read it if you don’t want to, or all of it, or all in one sitting.  But I hope it will help you understand the truth about how Social Security works.] I read an article the other day [December 8] in the Wall Street...

J.P. at J.P. McJefferson blog took up a rather interesting conversation with AI/ChatGPT. J.P. McJefferson: Chatting With AI On Better Government, jpmcjefferson.blogspot.com. ME What ideas do you have for improving U.S. governmental decision-making? ChatGPT Improving U.S. governmental decision-making is a multifaceted challenge that involves addressing various aspects of the political process. Here are some ideas that could contribute...

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big decline in long term interest rates this week in the wake of the Fed’s announced “pivot” towards lowering rates created one of the biggest changes in the long leading indicators for several years. Meanwhile most of the coincident indicators continue to speak of a strong economy. The intersection that is going to tell the tale going forward in the next 6...

Open Threads are created for people to have conversations which may not fit in with topical posts . . . a comment which may be off topic. I usually offer up one topic to start a conversation. Many think it is ok to abandon a nation threatened by a global threat in the form of Russia. Or it could be a threatening China, etc. intimidating other countries. J.P. Jefferson sums it up rather well. The absurdity of mixing three distinctively different...

Industrial production remains below late 2022 peak even after end of UAW strike  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production historically has been the King of Coincident Indicators, turning up and down at the onset and end of recessions in the past. But as I wrote last month there are signs that has changed in the past 20+ years since China was admitted to normal trade relationships with the US. Because manufacturing is a much smaller share of...

A warning (for comments I guess). I really like to answer rhetorical questions. The answers are quite long. I can semi remember one. Being clever (as he often is*) Matthew Yglesias asked how and when the Democratic Socialists became bitter adversaries of the Social Democrats, which is odd since both phrases are translations of the same polysyllabic German word. I happened to know the approximate answher (I didn’t recall the exact date which turns...

Real retail sales mildly positive, but still suggest further deceleration in job gains  – by New Deal democrat Before proceeding further, I should mention – and should have mentioned as to jobless claims – that we are in that part of the year where seasonality often wreaks havoc, so outsized gains or losses should be taken with a grain of salt. This is particularly true as to YoY comparisons of retail claims, because last year November and...