The Angry Bear

New drugs go through clinical trials before they can be marketed. Phase I trials are for safety. Phase II/III trials are for efficacy. If a drug fails these trials, it can’t be sold.One challenge to drug testing is trial enrollment. Ideally, the subjects should be demographically representative. The problem is that there can be significant variation among trial participants that is not reflected in sex, age or ethnicity.Drugs have a half-life in the...

 – by New Deal democrat The divergence in the trends between initial and continuing claims continued this week, as the former continued their somnolent good news, while the latter had a slightly disconcerting pop. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 210,000, and the four week average declined -750 to 211,000. On the other hand, with the usual one week delay, continuing claims rose 24,000 to 1.819 million: The first two are in the same range...

Back when we lived in Chapel Hill NC, we made a few trips to the Outer Banks where my wife had an uncle who built fishing boats in Buxton NC. Back then, nobody was talking about sea levels rising because of global warming and yet it was obvious back then (early 1980s) that these sandy beaches were ephemeral and the buildings that overlooked them were at risk. The iconic Hatteras Lighthouse had to be moved away from the encroaching ocean back in...

by David Zetland The one-handed economist Schools tend to go to one extreme or another when it comes to grades: they are either confidential or posted openly. The reasons for confidential tend to involve self esteem, privacy, peer pressure and bullying. The idea is that students will be mean to each other if they know the grades of others. This idea is a bit flawed — students can be mean in many ways, grades are feedback on work rather...

by Dean Baker CEPR Not much of a surprise here the 11 Washington Post’s Charts need some explaining to correct the misinterpretation of them by WaPo. The issue here is the amount of bad or false information floating around in the news media today. People tend to believe what they initially read and go no further. When people like Prof. Dean come along and correct the inaccuracies it can be misinterpreted as political. People want to believe...

Gee, whata surprise. Did this even make sense in the beginning? NBC empties the trash can before it starts to smell. Robert Reich: Ronna McDaniel’s tenure at NBC lasted four days. It ended last night, after network anchors and reporters blasted NBC’s decision to hire her last Friday. They argued that hiring her gave a green light for election deniers to spread lies as paid contributors. The New York Times said the episode underscored the...

 – by New Deal democrat As I wrote on Monday, the big question for this year is whether the recessionary effects of the Fed rate hikes have just been delayed. Or whether, because the rate hikes have stopped, so has the headwind they normally produce. Watching manufacturing and construction, especially housing construction, is what I expect to supply the answer. On Monday I focused on housing construction and sales. Since there’s no big economic...

Suddenly everyone is an expert on Shipping and Supply Chain. Considering we had issues in Long Beach and Los Angeles, management did not resolve the issue, I understand they are unionized. You pay them and solve the issues. Instead, Biden has to step-in and schedules overtime. You get the product to the customer. Los Angeles is the busiest port and then New York/New Jersey. One ship crashes into a Baltimore bridge and we have expectations of more...

Whenever Elon Musk says a thing, I reflexively mistrust it. So when I saw a video clip of Musk making this assertion, I wanted to think I learned something about the auto industry, but then I considered the source:“Large incumbent carmakers sell their cars at low to zero true margin. Most of their profit is selling replacement parts to their fleet, of which 70% to 80% are past warranty. Like razors & blades.”What say you, Bears? Is he correct?...

 – by New Deal democrat As I noted again yesterday, house prices lag home sales, which in turn lag mortgage rates. Yesterday we got the final February reading on sales. This morning we got the final January read on prices, for repeat sales of existing homes. Last week’s report on existing home sales showed a sharp increase in February, a repeat of the seasonally adjusted sharp increase last February, which was almost completely taken back over...