The Angry Bear

[unable to retrieve full-text content]An explanation of over-reaction to new data starts with a principal agent model. The idea is that the forecasts are made by agents who are trying to impress people who pay for the forecasts.  Another, and more important, case is that of professional money managers who are investing other people’s money and trying to convince […] The post Over-reaction to new data. What have you done for me lately ? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]I’ve read where Musk and Ramaswami are proposing a 75% cut in the federal workforce. That’s absurd. • National security-related agencies account for roughly 70% of the civilian workforce. The largest employers were the Department of Veterans Affairs, with 487,000 workers, followed by the armed services, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Justice Department. […] The post Federal worker cuts are mostly not gonna happen...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]If you have been reading New Deal democrat all along, you will remember NDd’s commentary on October 23rd (the link is below) discussing the possible stall of corporate profits. Maybe it is an easy call and maybe not. There are negatives to corporate profits stalling. Read on . . .  – by New Deal democrat […] The post The long leading indicator of corporate profit growth stalled in Q3 appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Economist reports on what countries are less costly when driving EVs. If you go to the Economist site, you can find more countries by hovering over each colored circle. And is it always greener? Our ranking shows how costs and emissions vary. OWNERS OF ELECTRIC vehicles (EVs) have a lot to brag about. Their cars are […] The post Where is it actually cheaper to drive an electric car? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]While no plans have been announced by Donald Trump or Linda McMahon, a few existing programs are likely to undergo changes. What Will Federal Student Loan Repayment Look Like Under the Second Trump Administration? – By Steven Chung on November 27, 2024 at 12:16 PM Above the Law With President-Elect Trump returning to the White House in […] The post Federal Student Loan Repayment Under the Second Trump Administration appeared first...

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat Let me start to update this week’s data with jobless claims. Initial claims fell another -2,000 to 213,000, the lowest since last May. The four-week moving average declined -1,250 to 217,000, also a six-month low. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.907 million: As with one […] The post Jobless claims continue to signal moderate expansion appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]There is an approach to cognitive psychology and modelling beliefs and forecasts which is natural for economists and very misleading. The assumptions are that we have a complete set of subjective probabilities updated with Bayes’ formula, that  for any possible combination of events we have a belief about the probability that they will occur and […] The post A Complete Set of Subjective Probabilities, Bayes’ Formula, Overconfidence...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Today, I chose to put up a few stories about Thanksgiving Days in the past. This instead of the usual commentaries we would write at Angry Bear. I believe they are good reads. I hope you enjoy your Thanksgiving Day. There is much to enjoy with family and friends. I spent time out of country […] The post Angry Bear Commenters and Readers appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by Sarah Laskow Atlas Obscura November 23, 2016 By the time she started pitching Thanksgiving to America, Sarah Josepha Hale knew her power. She was edging towards 60, and for a decade she had been the editress (her preferred term) of Godey’s Lady’s Book, one of the most widely read publications in the United States. Women followed […] The post Sarah Josepha Hale imagined a day of Christian Celebration. appeared...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by Annie Lowrey The Atlantic, November 20, 2018 A Thanksgiving story about the limits of human empathy . . . YELLVILLE, Ark.—It is October in the Ozarks. The grass has dried out and the trees have bronzed and browned. Deer lie glaze-eyed in the back of camouflaged pickup trucks. High-school football helmets crack every […] The post Yellville – Tossing a Turkey Out of a Plane appeared first on Angry Bear.