The Angry Bear

Weekly Indicators for July 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there continues to be evidence of the normal progression of weakness from long leading to short leading to coincident indicators, there has also been an anomalous major positive resurgence in some of the short leading indicators. By normal historical standards, we “ought” to be well into a downturn. And yet...

I guess one could get by on this salary if one were frugal, could find low-cost housing, maybe used public transportation, ate cheaply, etc. There is not much room for anything else. And yet people still manage to do it. As EPI details, Nineteen percent of workers (9.76 million workers) in 20 states are paid less than $15 per hour, compared with 13% of workers in the 30 states. “Workers are 46% more likely to make below $15 an hour in states...

The Price of Liberty is Eternal Vigilance – Through Critical Thinking, (substack.com, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Not many people realize the Statue of Liberty has broken chains at her feet. Originally, the chains were going to be placed in her hand, but the tablet eventually replaced that idea. When the Statue’s unveiling celebration took place on October 28, 1886, women’s groups protested the self-congratulatory nature of the day, given that women...

Driven by the hurricane force disinflationary tailwind, real personal spending and income, and real sales, all increase nicely  – by New Deal democrat In the current economy the personal spending and income report is just as important as the jobs report. That’s because, despite the downturn in manufacturing production and many parts of the housing market, consumer spending especially on services has continued to power the economy forward....

The Fed’s Target Is Workers, Project Syndicate, James K. Galbraith, January 2022 A year and a half later and the Fed is still trying to slay the dragon. They stab it with their steely knives, But they just can’t kill the beast. So it seems, the Feds losing battle is with Labor, direct Labor is the smallest portion of manufacturing. Without labor there is no product, just bets on the outcome of the economy. ~~~~~~~~ By announcing forthcoming...

Q2 GDP indicates continued good expansion now, but more storm clouds gathered ahead  – by New Deal democrat Now let’s deal with this morning’s big news: real GDP improved at a perfectly respectable 0.6% over the first Quarter of this year: This works out to a 2.4% annualized rate. Although it continues the slowdown from the white hot 2021 numbers, it would be average for the economy since the turn of the Millenium. As per my usual...

As a warehouse manager for $250 million in sales annually warehouse, I was tasked with distribution, inventory, and costs. In other words, we had to ship on time to get inventory overseas via train to container ships and customs in a timely manner to our plants. We did it but not without my going back to the warehouse at night to check inventory to answer a plant of spend a Wednesday and much of Thanksgiving Day answering the Philippines facility and...

I suspect that at the end of July, just about every expert globally will be looking for reasons why July’s climate will potentially be the hottest month experienced since we started to keep records. The U.S. has broken more than 2,000 high temperature records in the past month. The United States is long overdue in taking action to minimize the harm we as citizens exact upon our America. I guess we are not proud enough of this country to do...

For those old enough to remember the 1960s, the denials of the oil companies these days have a certain ring. Back then smokers were dying and the tobacco companies lying. Then Bogie, Ty, Errol, Clark, and Coop. Finally, it was all too much. Hollywood was good at dying. But, the real thing? Reality hits. Big Tobacco was real good at lying and hiring Senators who wail about livelihoods, theirs and others, being dependent. It was the lying what did it,...

Continuing improvement in new jobless claims re-sets the clock  – by New Deal democrat Let’s get the easy part of this morning’s slew of data out of the way first:  initial jobless claims declined -7,000 to 221,000. The 4 week average declined -3,750 to 233,750. With a one week lag, continuing claims declined -50,000 to 1.690 million: All of these are generally 5 month lows. The more important YoY% change for forecasting purposes also...