The Angry Bear

“November 9, 2022,” Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson, (substack.com) Yesterday was a good day for democracy. Americans turned out to defend our principles from those who denied our right to choose our own leaders. There was little violence, the election appears to have gone smoothly, and there are few claims of “fraud.” As I write tonight, control of the House and Senate is still not clear, but some outlines are now...

Some Big Picture comments on the 2022 midterm elections  – by New Deal democrat No economic news today while we await tomorrow’s big inflation report (Hint: shelter inflation is going to continue to be the big driver); and I think maybe we had a little political event yesterday, so let me make a few brief comments. 1. From the beginning of this year, I told everybody who would listen that (1) the Supreme Court was really and truly going to...

Deceleration and deterioration, but no downturn signaled  – by New Deal democrat No economic news of note today or tomorrow, except the (very late) Q3 Senior Loan Officers Report this afternoon, which will tell us about the state of credit, but is anticipated in much more timely – i.e., weekly – fashion by the Chicago Fed’s Financial Conditions Index. So let’s take a look at some noteworthy items from last Friday’s jobs report. As I...

As I write this it is still possible the Democrats will lose control of Congress, with all that entails, but the Democrats did outperform the fundamentals, and it is useful to think about why.  Here is my quick list of possible explanations: Increased partisanship and decreased cross-over voting (see here). Inflation may not be as much of an economic negative as a lot of commentary suggests; maybe unemployment matters more. Voters may be...

Some Good Commentary this week. I would pay attention to the articles on Medicare Advantage. There has been a lot of complaints. If you are on Traditional Medicare, Be careful as they have been switching people over to Advantage Plans without asking. Sounds like the Fed believes people have too much cash in savings according to one article in “Economy.” Lots to read and catch up on in the world. Politics and Law “Regulators Move Against Two...

by Joseph Joyce Making Friends in the New Global Order U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a talk at the Atlantic Council last April on the future role of cooperation in the global economy. In October Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister of Canada and its Minister of Finance, gave an address at the Brookings Institution that presented a similar perspective on how the global economy must be reorganized to meet security demands. Their...

AE Housman comments on the election when it was 2000 1 and 20, I heard a wise man say, give tax cuts away a plenty but keep your fetuses free for the Roe taken from the women is sold for sighs aplenty and bought with endless rue but it was ‘1 and 20 no use to tell the GOP and now it’s ‘2 and 20 and oh ’tis true ’tis true ...

According to political scientist John Sides, the fundamentals suggest that Democrats should expect to lose 1 to 3 Senate seats and 40 to 45 House seats.  Going into the election today, polls suggest that the Democrats are likely to lose the House and possibly the Senate, but not by as much as one might expect given economic conditions.  Suppose that Democrats substantially beat the fundamentals even if they lose control of Congress.  What lessons...

Have not done this in a while, maybe a long while. It was late 1996 and Participation Rate was up at 67%. It stayed up there till 2001 and Greenspan began a gradual decrease from in the Fed Rate from 6.0% down to 1.75%. I believe we had a small recession back then. Greenspan was trying to avoid it from becoming worse. 2001 was the last time the country saw Participation Rate at 67%.. The country has not seen a 67% Participation Rate since 2001...

“Open thread November 4, 2022″ – Angry Bear, (angrybearblog.com).