The Angry Bear

by Joseph Joyce China and the Debt Crisis Sri Lanka is not the first developing economy to default on its foreign debt, and certainly won’t be the last. The Economist has identified 53 countries as most vulnerable to a combination of “heavy debt burdens, slowing global growth and tightening financial conditions.” The response of China to what will be a rolling series of restructurings and write-downs will reveal much about its position in the...

As usual, what I found in My In-Box. Things I would like to write, have barely enough time to read, and pass them on to AB readers. Nothing here on the present battle between the DoJ and a neophyte Federal judge who lacks broad based experience as a federal prosecutor and in civil trials. I had an article, read it, and did not realize what I had read and who it applied to at the time. Then the storm hit. The text as written by an attorney who...

I told you so Not much economic news this week. I’ll post an update on COVID later, but for now, a follow-up on my Mar A Lago search warrant post last week. Last week I concluded my observations as follows: “Despite how devastating the DoJ response apparently is, it is important to remember that this judge, on Friday [actually Saturday, sorry], publicly declared that she had made up her mind on an issue before the other party had an...

If I was going to guess, and I do not have to do so, it appears the US is retooling to update capabilities. Maybe they will put forth a plan to minimize inventory too. The source of all this retooling? Probably using up the money made during the pandemic and also government funds invested in infrastructure. And maybe, they are creating minimal setups to handle a variety of product like we did for one supplier of hoods to Chrysler. Automotive still...

 Lawrence Mishel and Josh Bivens  at Economic Policy Institute take a look at why wages have been relatively flat compared to productivity gains in the US economy, inequality of compensation, and declining share of income between labor and capital. Broad strokes but helps with context and suggesting ideas for current government actions. Inequalities abound in the U.S. economy, and a central driver in recent decades is the widening gap...

On Labor Day 2022, how well is labor doing? This is Labor Day, so let’s take a look at a few metrics of how labor is doing. As an initial aside, occasionally I get asked why I write about expansions and recessions. An important reason is, pretty much by definition during recessions jobs and income decline. During expansions they, well, expand. So forecasting whether the period ahead will feature better or worse conditions for job-holding and...

We need to make a long-term commitment to Ukrainian victory.  Jack Watling: Given that offensive operations to liberate occupied territories are likely to run through 2023 and are dependent upon Western aid, it is important that Ukraine’s international partners stop periodic announcements about specific lists of equipment and instead articulate a longer-term commitment to structural aid out to 2024. The reasons for this are straightforward....

A bit of an intro for Weldon. A good writer who I knew at Slate’s, “The Best of the Fray.” In contrast to what is there at Slate now, we far surpassed its present quality. Just a quiet read on Labor Day. “Slacker Sunday,” Bad Crow Review, Weldon Burger (author) “A dog howls at daybreak,” Years back a friend had a bloodhound called Elvis. The dog sounding off in the wee-ish hours this morning sounded like kin. The eyes are the...

In 2020, after Democrats had retaken control of the House of Representatives, the third version of the larger bill managed to actually pass the House under the more reasonable title of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Enhancement Act. Of course, it didn’t even get a vote in the Senate. In early 2021, a temporary version of this bill by Rep. Lauren Underwood, was in the American Rescue Plan (ARP). It passed both the House & Senate on...