The Angry Bear

I was catching up on the back issues of New Yorker accumulating on the coffee table, and read an article about the rise and decline of libertarianism in the GOP. The idea that anything resembling libertarianism was actually popular in the Republican Party is a joke. Ostensibly, libertarian wants to shrink big government. OK, lets talk about that. The US military is (1) one of the largest government programs, and (2) the most transparently socialist...

Powell: “Labor costs are really the biggest factor in most parts of that sector (service),” Powell said. “We need to see a better alignment of supply and demand in the labor market and see some more softening in labor market conditions so that inflationary pressures in that sector can also begin to subside.” Open Thread July 9, 2023 US Debt, Angry Bear, angry bear blog ...

Powell: “Labor costs are really the biggest factor in most parts of that sector (service),” Powell said. “We need to see a better alignment of supply and demand in the labor market and see some more softening in labor market conditions so that inflationary pressures in that sector can also begin to subside.” I believe Powell is attempting to be another Volcker. In all my years in consulting to supply chain Globally, Direct Labor has not been the...

Initial claims move closer to red flag recession warning  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -12,000 last week to 237,000. The four week average declined -6,750 to 246,750. With a one week delay, continuing claims increased 11,000 to 1,729,000: More importantly for forecasting purposes, the YoY% increases were 7.2% for the weekly number, 14.5% for the 4 week average, and 31.6% for continuing claims respectively: This...

Initial claims move closer to red flag recession warning  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -12,000 last week to 237,000. The four week average declined -6,750 to 246,750. With a one week delay, continuing claims increased 11,000 to 1,729,000: More importantly for forecasting purposes, the YoY% increases were 7.2% for the weekly number, 14.5% for the 4 week average, and 31.6% for continuing claims respectively: This...

Angry Bear has been writing about the Opioid epidemic and what has been influencing it for years. I was to write on it at one time and continued to do so. It would seem there should be more coming forth from companies who promoted its use. If we go back and read the Jink and Porter letter misused to promote the use and sale of an Opioid, one can see how its use grew. $50 billion is not enough to resolve the damage done. How $50 billion in opioid...

Angry Bear has been writing about the Opioid epidemic and what has been influencing it for years. I was asked to write on it by an association and continued to do so. It would seem there should be more money coming forth from companies who promoted its use. If we go back and read the Jink and Porter letter misused by Purdue and other companies to promote the use and sale of an Opioid, one can see how its use grew. The $50 billion is not enough to...

The existential risks associated with global warming include coastal flooding, loss of fresh water, desertification, life-threatening temperatures and loss of ocean fisheries. Another risk is the spread of infectious diseases that are normally restricted to tropical latitudes. While the prospect of eliminating insect vectors such as Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes, tsetse flies and triatomine bugs using CRISPR gene drives offers some hope, viruses and...

June inflation almost non-existent except for the fictitious measures of shelter  – by New Deal democrat  The message of this morning’s consumer inflation report was the same for almost everything except for the fictitious measures of shelter: sharp deceleration everywhere. Let’s take a look: Headline CPI up 0.2% m/m and 3.1% YoY (lowest since March 2021) Core CPI up 0.2% m/m and 4.9% YoY (lowest since October 2021): CPI less...

as often happens, I felt moved to reply to the e-mail that Noah Smith blasts out. On my PhD supervisor Larry Summers to whom I owe a debt I can never repay: who the fuck cares about inflation ? Answer: everyone but for opposite reasons. Economists think that, in the long run, inflation does not effect real quantities except for menu costs and shoe leather costs. Economists estimate those costs to be almost exactly zero. Then economists say...