The Angry Bear

This is actually related to my day job. For some decades I have been puzzled by two of Kahneman and Tversky’s discoveries (reported very well in this excellent book). First, there is the excessive reliance on diagnostic characteristics (called diagnostic expectations by economists). A classic example is the room with 90 lawyers and 10 engineers. Jim is quiet and hardworking and likes model trains. It is human nature to conclude he is an engineer...

 – by New Deal democrat The news about initial and continuing jobless claims was almost all good this week. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 231,000, and the four-week moving average declined -4,750 to 231,500, the lowest since early June. Continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1.868 million: As usual, more important for forecasting purposes are the YoY% changes. In that regard, initial claims were down -1.3%, and the four-week moving...

I attended 7th grade in a building that was built of brick and wood. In 8th grade, I was moved to the new junior high, a formed concrete building in the modern fortress architecture style.Now, it seems, what was old is new again. Wood is making a comeback, with a focus on a green building strategy called “embodied” carbon reduction. The goal is to lower the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the construction processes.“Buildings account for more...

As usual Trump is bleating about the upcoming election and how he will be cheated through fraudulent actions if he loses. Another point being made in this commentary is the pricing of goods which went up 14% while corporate profits when up five times as much. A Kroger Director admits such for some food products. My argument over the years has been prices can increase unduly and not due to increases in cost. Companies can increase prices because...

What is the issue(s) here is larger hospitals such as “Bon Secours (48 hospitals) has been slashing services” at its facility in a poorer, predominantly Black part of Richmond. At the same time, it is ‘investing in the city’s wealthier, white neighborhoods.’” By maintaining the Richmond hospital, it keeps access to the 340B program, provides drugs to the hospital in the wealthy section, and goes around the 340B rules. 340B hospitals are also...

Two excellent short and very readable mini articles (to be redundant). Both pieces are pointing to a direction the Fed should take in the next year or sooner with regard to Climate Change. It is doubtful they will do so until catastrophe hits. What is a few $billion more in spending, right??? This aspect of our economy and how it can impact the economy should be taken into consideration in decision making and costs. This is partially why, these...

I guess if you are X-President D. Trump and a civilian, nothing still applies to him. Even showing respect at Arlington. This is a man who called Vets losers. Trump: “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” On McCain . . . “He’s not a war hero,” Trump said in 2015 while running for the Republican nomination for president. “I like people who weren’t captured.” About McCains funeral, “He’s not a war hero,” Trump said in 2015...

 – by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the economy as a whole. This post explores why and suggests a revised tool that may be a helpful short leading indicator. On Monday, durable goods orders rebounded sharply in July from their abrupt June decline. Still, as shown in the graph below, growth in both new factory orders and core capital goods orders has...

Here’s the Penn Wharton Budget Model breakdown for how much each candidate’s economic proposals will affect the national debt:“We estimate that the Trump Campaign tax and spending proposals would increase primary deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next 10 years on a conventional basis and by $4.1 trillion on a dynamic basis that includes economic feedback effects. Households across all income groups benefit on a conventional basis.”“We estimate that...

QUARTZ The ‘Lock-in Effect’ is Easing. Here is What It means for the Housing Market Homeowners are beginning to give up on waiting for lower mortgage rates. That could be good news for potential homebuyers. In the first quarter of this year, six of every seven homeowners, or 86%, have a mortgage rate below 6%, according to a Redfin analysis of the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database published Tuesday. That’s down from a...