The Angry Bear

Imagine that in the 1970s you bought a plat along the coast in Florida that was on a large pile of sand that was basically at sea level upon which you planned to build a four-hundred unit, twelve story tall, condominium complex. This complex was to rest on a slab of concrete that rested atop the pile of sand and a lot of long pilings driven deep into the pile (but not to bedrock). If you will, the building(s) were to rest atop a concrete many-legged...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for July 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. All timeframes continue positive, but the renewed outbreak of COVID – indeed, its uncontrolled exponential spread – is the proverbial elephant in the room, and is quite likely to Bigfoot the entire forecast and nowcast. And with the many crosscurrents, the effect on the economy is fiendishly difficult to forecast....

Bad News About Iran And Nuclear Deal  In yesterday’s Washington Post it was reported that there will be no further negotiations between the US and Iran (and other parties) in Vienna over the US and Iran rejoining the JCPOA nuclear agreement that Iran had been adhering to when Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018, then reimposing economic sanctions on Iran, with Iran then starting to violate the agreement in various ways starting a year...

Steve Hutkins at Save the Post Office, “Reply to the USPS: How the new service standards will cause geographic discrimination” The Postal Service’s plan to reduce service standards is now being reviewed by the Postal Regulatory Commission for an Advisory Opinion. On Friday, June 25, the Postal Service and several of the intervenors in the case submitted their Reply Briefs. (You can find the briefs and replies here.) Below is my Reply Brief....

This post is before my time of writing at Angry Bear. It does fit in nicely with the need for reasonable economics of our times and I noticed its popularity growing . The author of this piece is Kash, one of the originators of AB. This is a rehash which has seen rising popularity. If you consider when this was written, it was on the precipice of the 2008 collapse when both Wall Street and Main Street were ready to fall into a depression. While...

by Joseph Joyce “The Sources of International Investment Income in Emerging Market Economies” The Review of International Economics has published my paper on “The Sources of International Investment Income in Emerging Market Economies” in its latest issue. You can find the paper here, and this is the abstract: We investigate international investment income flows in 26 emerging market countries during the period of 1998–2015. Net investment...

Steve Hutkins at Save The Post Office, “How the postal reform bill may help the Postal Service slow down the mail” In August 1970, Title 39, aka the Postal Reorganization Act, created the Postal Service. The first section, 39 U.S. Code § 101, is entitled “Postal Policy.” It’s just over 400 words long, but it is probably the most frequently quoted passage in the history of postal legislation. It’s often cited in litigation, academic articles, and...

Real wages decrease sharply – at least, if you include used vehicle prices As I pointed out yesterday, the big increase in inflation over the past few months has made the YoY change in real wages for nonsupervisory workers negative. Let’s take a little closer look. Here is a graph of wages for nonsupervisory workers taking overall inflation into account, normed to 100 as of January 1973 (its peak previous to the pandemic): Wages had...

by Joseph Joyce Will A Rise in Interest Rates Lead to a New Debt Crisis? The question of when the Federal Reserve will begin to reverse its loose policy stance continues to be a topic of widespread speculation. At last month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, its members showed a willingness to cut back on asset purchases in 2022 and to raise interest rates in 2023 but kept monetary policy on its current setting due to slower...