The Angry Bear

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for October 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Although I have read a few pieces this past week about deep downgrades to Q3 GDP estimates, and other problems with sales, the fact remains that the high-frequency indicators are almost all positive, across all timeframes. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you fully up to date on the economic trends,...

Blogger RJS, Marketwatch 666, September jobs report September Summary Major agency reports released this past week included the the Employment Situation Summary for September from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the August report on our International Trade from the Commerce Dept, and the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for August, and the August report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories, both from the...

Steve Bannon: “The Democrats don’t matter,” he had said to me over our lunch. “The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit.” This piece by Genevieve Newton published by the Brownstone Institute is a masterclass in innuendo and misdirection:  At the core of my concern is that despite what we’re being told by our government and policy makers, this is not a black and white issue. I have many...

The Passing Of Peter Flaschel And The Bielefeld School Of Macroeconomics  German economist Peter Flaschel died yesterday at age 78.  I am not sure precisely of what, although it was not Covid-19.  He had been in declining health for some years, with a heart problem at least.  Roberto Veneziani, from whom I learned the news, said that Peter “sounded tired” when he spoke with him a few days ago.  Ironically he spoke with him to tell him I had...

The Origin Of The Terms “Socialism” and “Communism”  This is one of those rare times when I post here about my academic research, but on this matter, well, I think this is of broader interest than the usual obscuranta that I usually study academically. So, my wife, Marina, and I were asked to contribute to a “Handbook on Comparative Economics.” We were supposed to have sent in our chapter by the end of September. There will be a conference on...

September jobs report: once again, two very different surveys net to a “relatively” disappointing gain As I previously indicated, two items I was particularly watching for in this morning’s report (Oct. 7) were (1) manufacturing hours and payrolls – to see if that white-hot sector was holding up in the face of supply bottlenecks, and (2) whether there were continued gains in leisure and hospitality jobs, or whether Delta had caused those to...

What did you know and when did you know it? J. Michael Luttig, the former United States Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit: “I was honored to advise Vice President Pence that he had no choice on January 6, 2021, but to accept and count the Electoral College votes as they had been cast and properly certified by the states…. I believe(d) that Professor Eastman was incorrect at every turn of the analysis in...

Updated US wealth distribution data shows how bad the Great Recession and its aftermath were, and how effective the pandemic assistance has been   The desert of new economic data this week continues today. But last week the Fed released its quarterly data on wealth distribution in the US, and it shows an important point about the efficacy of the emergency pandemic assistance. Let’s take a look. Let’s start with the raw absolute levels of...

A slow grind in new and continued claims as Covid’s effects gradually transition from pandemic to endemic Jobless claims declined 38,000 this week to 326,000, still 14,000 above the September 4 pandemic low of 312,000. The 4 week average rose 3,500 to 344,000, 8,250 above their September 18 pandemic low of 335,750: Continuing claims declined 97,000 to 2,714,000, a new pandemic low: Here is the YoY% change of continuing...

Consider these excerpts from a recent piece by Jeffrey Tucker at the Brownstone Institute with the understated title “The Purges Have Begin”.  Would someone who took these extreme, apocalyptic arguments to heart oppose efforts by a faction of ethno-nationalist Republicans to steal an election or entrench themselves in power? The policies have been bad enough but the political polarization has been the real poison. In history, we’ve seen where this...