The Angry Bear

April Personal Income Down a Record 13.1%, Disposable Personal Income Down a Record 14.6%, Savings Falls 54.0%, Marketwatch 666, RJS The April report on Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis reflects the partial unwinding of the March government stimulus in just about every metric it tracks except for prices, which are said to be “transitory“, influenced by temporary shortages and supply chain issues….as you’ll recall,...

Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak The last of the 4 monthly coincident markers for whether the economy is in recession vs. expansion was reported this morning for April. Let’s take a look. In nominal terms, personal income declined -13.1%, taking back most, not by no means all, of March’s big 20.7% gain. After taking inflation into account, in real terms, it declined -13.7%....

The Trumpification of Xi Jinping  The Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) has achieved great outcomes over the last several decades, especially after the late Deng Xiaoping took effective control of the nation from Maoist holdovers.  He set a model of indirect and collective leadership in contrast with Mao Zedong who ruled nearly absolutely for nearly three decades, while building and enforcing a cult of personality dedicated to himself. Of the top...

“Americans stress over ‘unshakeable burden’ of student loan payments,” The Guardian, Michael Sainato, May 2020 The nation can alleviate one person of their debt multiple times; but, it can not do so for the younger contingent consisting of minorities and white former students who would add to the growth of the economy if freed. Much ofd this debt consists of usurious penalties, the interest on those penalties, forbearance interest and the interest...

New home sales decline in April, revised sharply lower for March; prices continue to skyrocket, while inventory increases This morning both new home sales and two price indexes for houses were released for April, completing our view of that important long leading sector. As anticipated, not only did new home sales decline for the month, but March was also hugely revised to the downside ( over 10%!): Figure 1 With these revisions,...

This particular post is coming out of Angry Bear’s comment section. Mike Smith is the author. Mike grows various food items on his farm and has a hands-on knowledge of what is occurring in the beef industry today. What Mike is touching upon today is the small farmer industry and how the farmers are being squeezed out in bringing beef to market. The wholesalers and larger food chains such as Walmart can manipulate pricing to benefit themselves at...

New jobless claims continue to decline at rate of 100,000 per month, while continued claims stall at elevated level New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic – both new infections and deaths are near their lowest points in a year.  We have hit my objective for new claims to be under 500,000 by...

by Joseph Joyce International Factor Income in 2020 The sharp contraction in economic activity in the first half of 2020 due to the COVID pandemic was followed by a slow and uneven recovery in the second half of the year. The decline slowed global trade and capital flows, although not as much as initially expected. The economc slowdown also lowered investment income and remittances, the two main forms of international factor income...

Larry Summers Doubles Down On His Inflation Prediction  But somehow becomes vaguer about exactly how this is going to happen and show up, but he wants the Fed to stop it in its track, goshdarnit.  This is in a column appearing in the Washington Post, May 25, “The inflation risk is real.” Well, he does start out by saying that the economic recovery from the pandemic is a good thing, as is of course the the receeding of the pandemic itself, with...