The Angry Bear

The White House released this document on Wednesday, September 25, 2019. It details a July call between President Trump and President Zelensky of the Ukraine. About midway through it, there is a warning of the contents not being a “verbatim transcript.” I have taken some time to include the notes (red) which are found at the end of the post and have notated the particular passages to which the notes are detailing. If you need direction other than the...

August new home sales continue rebounding trend Let me start out my look at this morning’s August new home sales report with my typical housing mantra: Interest rates lead sales Sales lead prices Prices lead inventory We saw all of that in this morning’s report. First, the trend of rising single family sales continues, and the three month average of this very volatile series (blue), shown in comparison with single family housing permits  was the...

The incipient housing choke collar: July prices update Three months ago I first wrote about the concept of a “housing choke collar” constraining economic growth, to wit: The FHFA and Case-Shiller price indexes have only decelerated to a point where they roughly match median household income growth. This makes me wonder if prices for new homes will shoot back up again quickly as demand returns. If so, we could wind up in a “choke collar” situation...

by New Deal democrat Tame inflation —-> “soft landing”? I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha. So long as inflation remains tame, the Fed has scope to bring about a “soft landing” to the slowdown, without there necessarily being a recession (so long as the Toddler in the White House doesn’t tip over the whole apple cart). As usual, clicking over and reading puts a penny or two in my pocket. ...

What Kurt Eichenwald says – Saving the Republic When I’m not reading and writing about the economy, I do occasionally comment elsewhere on political topics. So it was on Thursday when, in response to this post asserting that Democrats were powerless to do anything – (including enforcing THEIR OWN GODDAM SUBPOENAS!) – and that it was “green lantern-ism” to believe otherwise, I decided I had had enough (see comment #25), for which I was called a “kook” and...

Take Your Pick of Left Wing Climate Change Narratives: Green Abundance or Righteous Austerity While I was preoccupied with other things, the US left settled on a pair of competing climate change narratives.  By the time I looked, the choice was down to just these two, and no other views could be considered. View #1, Green Abundance, is that combating climate change means unleashing the power of renewable energy.  Fortunately, according to this story,...

[embedded content]Not a Human, but a Dance, Atlantic Daily, Ed Yong, September 19, 2019 I do not know about you when you receive a magazine you subscribe to; but when I get mine, I read it from cover to cover. I also send a copy to one who is incarcerated to read and it makes the rounds amongst the inmates. Since I chased prisoners in the service, it is not unusual for me to look after some of them. Me: This bird has more rhythm than I do. Not a Human,...

(Dan here…op-ed lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts, written before coffee on a Sunday morning and feeling older I bet.  Thinking of older, my first computer was a Commodore 128, which isn’t even a minimum RAM amount on my Kindle much less my phone.  Still, I like my two year old basic laptop and a stripped down Windows 10 for personal use.  My wife has an Apple product.  I control my e-mail by being a curmudgeon, which I find much more efficient...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for September 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. For all of the discussion about various iterations of the treasury bond yield curve, it is little noted that right now it is sending a different message than virtually every other long leading indicator for the economy. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment on the economy, and bring me a penny or...