The Angry Bear

(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) by Robert Waldmann The optics are as bad as they look  Dean “The Optics aren’t as bad as they look” Baquet just confirmed that he actually doesn’t do his job any more. He doesn’t decide what is on the front page of the New York Times. He doesn’t explain what he does (except force reporters to tone down their story on the Trump campaigns connections to Russia until it falsely asserted that the FBI had...

Krugman on Trump and Trade: Not Tariffic I’m no fan of the Trump tariff tantrum, but weak criticism of it does no one a service.  And while I agree with Paul Krugman on a lot of things, he has a long history of being misguided on trade policy.  Alas, his op-ed in today’s New York Times continues the legacy of the Bad Krugman, not the good one. Before getting to the theoretical meat, let’s take a moment to observe the holes in his argument that should...

Note how the survey data is weakening more than the payroll data The survey data tends to lead the payroll: In 2019 payroll employment —  what Wall Street pays attention to –is the weakest since 2012. Moreover, hours worked has flattened out: Finally, average hourly wage growth is also weak.

Scenes from the July employment report First things first: I’m on a vacation for part of this week, so don’t be surprised if there are no postings for a few days. The July employment report continued a string of good headline numbers with weak leading internals. Let’s take a look. In the good news department, the U6 underemployment rate declined to yet another new expansion low of 7.0%. This is mainly due to the continuing decline in the involuntarily...

This post will be especially confused. I am thinking about cash bail and how it is unacceptable that richer people have more liberty than poorer people. For some reason my thoughts turned to Jeffrey Epstein currently held without bail, because of course. Now he hasn’t been convicted yet, and I do support the 5th and 6th amendments, so I have a problem. I will try to solve the problem. I’m going to start with Hobbes, Locke, Mill and Nozick (which one...

. H/T Holly Nelson

I have met this man on several occasions. He is one of the most unimposing and quiet people I have ever run across. You would never know he is one of the most knowledgeable and capable constitutional attorneys in the nation having testified to Congress on SCOTUS appointments. Erwin Chemerinsky: In Marbury vs. Madison, in 1803, the Supreme Court declared that it is “the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is.”Quoting Chief...

(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) by Robert Waldmann Nomoremisterniceblog almost states the bitter truth, but he’s too nice to tell us what fools we are. He wrote: I don’t want to relitigate the McGovern and Mondale campaigns, but Dukakis? “Free everything and impossible promises” weren’t what defeated him. My comment I want to relitigate events of 1984, which Delaney has sent down the memory hole. Mondale was not hammered because he...

The housing choke collar I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, discussing how, even though sales went down last year, and have already bottomed, house prices have as usual, followed into decline with a lag. Beyond that, I discuss the concept of a “housing choke collar,’ similar to the “oil choke collar” I used to write about in 2010-14, whereby prices repeatedly approach the tipping point of unaffordability, causing sales to drop off, causing interest...