The Angry Bear

A note on December existing home sales First of all, sorry for the light posting this week.  There’s not much news until tomorrow and Friday, and yesterday was a travel day.  So….. While existing home sales are about 90% of the entire housing market, they are the least important economically, because of their much more limited impact since they do not involve any new construction. That being said, December’s existing home sales, at 5.57 million...

Is Trump’s Washing Machine Tariff To Punish South Korea For Being Too Friendly With North Korea? I have seen nobody claim this, and this may simply be a matter of collateral damage, as Trump has officially approved of the recent openings related to the forthcoming Winter Olympics in South Korea, especially since South Korean President Moon went out of his way to give credit to Trump publicly for this opening, credit Trump publicly accepted.  It is...

Recent increased interest rates probably won’t derail housing In the last couple of weeks, long term interest rates have moved significantly higher.  As of yesterday, the 10 year bond closed at roughly 2.66%, its highest yield in 3 1/2 years.  If this move is sustained for a few months, I expect it to have an effect on the housing market, but how much? Here is an updated variation on a graph I have run many times over the last 5 years:  the YoY change...

McConnell is a weasel. He has sold out his own by making promises and then reneging on them like he did with Collins. He makes promises to Democrats and then reverses his stance laying the blame on them. Over at Washington Monthly, the writers think Schumer needs to up his game. Lets ask the question of whether the Democrats really caused the military not to be paid and shut down the government. Click on the link or view the Youtube. With three “I...

Amazon scores two more $5+ billion bids A non-blogging friend points me to the announcement today of Maryland’s subsidy bidthat puts Montgomery County into one of the 20 finalist slots. Shockingly, Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) put in a bid that would pay Amazon almost the entire cost of its facility, depending on what you think a proper discount rate should be now (hint: low). “HQ2,” which Amazon has stated will amount to an eventual $5 billion in...

(Dan here…late to post at AB…more on the way) by Kenneth Thomas Amazon moves closer to breaking the bank with “HQ2” Yesterday (Jan. 18), Amazon announced the 20 finalists for its “HQ2” project, that will supposedly create a second headquarters (why?) for the company somewhere in North America, most likely in the United States. With an alleged 50,000 jobs and $5 billion in investment, this development attracted 238 bids from cities and counties in the...

Mother Jones tells the story here in graphic detail. The GOP’s Biggest Charter School Experiment Just Imploded How a washed-up lobbyist built a charter school empire and siphoned millions from public schools. “Now, with ECOT imploding, some state politicians have floated the idea that Lager, who has made millions in profits off the school and come a long way from the Waffle House, should be personally held responsible for paying back some of the $80...

The intensity of Fed rate hikes as a precursor to recessions Between 1931 and the mid-1950s, the yield curve never inverted, and yet there were 5 recessions (1938, 1945, 1948, 1950, and 1954). In particular, the 1938 “recession within the depression” was one of the worst of the 20th century. So in a low inflation and low interest rate environment, where the yield curve may not invert, are there other signals from the bond market that are reasonably...