The Angry Bear

by Jeff Soplop (Dan here…not so heavy post) The Simpsons’ Predictive Powers Demonstrate the Limits of Forecasting The long-running TV show The Simpsons is attracting much attention for some of its uncannily accurate predictions. The United States’ curling team’s defeat of Sweden in the Olympics – something The Simpsons predicted in 2010 – being the most recent example. And, of course, there is the notorious episode from 2000, which referenced a Trump...

by New Deal democrat   (Dan here … lifted from Bonddad) Real M1 and M2 growth the lowest since 2010 In view of yesterday’s inflation report, I take a look at the recent big deceleration in both real M1 and M2 over at XE.com.

Kudlow Predicts An Investment Boom Kudlow channels his inner Gerald Friedman: Larry Kudlow, picked to be President Trump’s new economic adviser, has privately told the White House that the nation’s economy is on the verge of 4 percent to 5 percent growth, or more than double the last decade. In a recent gathering with Trump, he said that many firms held back investing until the tax reform package passed and “some of that is already showing up.” What’s...

The Grand Illusion 2.0 Introductory note: this is a very long epistle. But I think my point needs to be made fully and at length. Before you go further, in fairness here is the TL:DR version: Advocates of free trade and globalization were taken aback a week ago by the assumption by China’s President Xi Jinping of rule for life. This was because it runs completely contrary to their theory that free trade leads to economic liberalization, which in turn...

First I stress the great effort I put into avoiding all Lamb puns in the title. Second, I think the discussion of his recent extremely narrow voctory makes the discussion of the campaign seem almost sane. Before their humiliating loss, Republican operatives insisted that voters were coming around to support their tax cut bill. In spite of the lack of much movement in public polls, they claimed they had private polls showing increased approval. They...

by Steve Roth    (via Asymptosis) Wealth and the National Accounts: Response to Matthew Klein I’m both abashed and delighted that the truly stand-out econ writer Matthew Klein has offered wonderfully fulsome praise of one of my pieces, Why Economists Don’t Know How to Think about Wealth, and some very interesting discussion as well. Some responses here. Please excuse me if I repeat some of the points from the first article. >His key point is that...

Kudlow Menzie Chinn notes: Mr. Kudlow is apparently on the short list for new National Economic Committee chair. Maybe a good time to review some of his macro predictions. Yours truly goes back memory lane: But let’s turn back the clock to the first term of the Bush43 Administration when Kudlow writing for the National Review was all in defending Bush’s fiscal stimulus and arguing at several points how the labor market was booming even when it was not....

Labor force participation, unemployment, and wages: an update About a year ago I wrote a series of posts on the relationship between the unemployment rate, labor force participation, and wage growth. Especially in view of last Friday’s jobs report, which showed blockbuster hiring, but a continuation of tepid wage growth over 8 years into the expansion, now is a good time for an update. To recapitulate, history shows that wage growth is lags the economy,...

(Dan here…better late posted here than not…. )  by New Deal democrat HEADLINES: +313,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate unchanged at 8.2% Here are the headlines on wages and the chronic heightened underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: declined -40,000 from 5.171 million to 5.131 million Part time for economic reasons: rose 171,000 from 4.989 million...