Lars P. Syll

Some basic COVID-19 mathematics  [embedded content]

Coronavirus pandemic cripples U.S. economy The economic toll tied to the coronavirus pandemic intensifies. Over the last three weeks, more than 16 million Americans have made unemployment claims. The unemployment rate is now over 10%. In the coming weeks, more people will face income and job losses. So how do we get out of this unprecedented crisis? To both Keynes and Lerner, it was evident that the state has the ability to promote full employment and a...

Finansminister Magdalena Andersson underskattar bråddjupet i den ekonomiska nedgången Den senaste månaden har en svagt vikande konjunktur snabbt förbytts i en tvär inbromsning för ekonomin som kommer få förödande konsekvenser för människor, sysselsättning och företag om den tillåts härja fritt. Att regeringen och riksdagspartierna snabbt enats om krispaket för välfärden, arbetslöshetsersättning och företagsstöd visar att det finns en beredskap och förmåga...

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What’s the problem with economic models? Some critics of economics appear to believe that the root of the alleged problems lies in models, or the method of modelling in general. On this view, modelling just is not an appropriate way of acquiring knowledge about the social world. No (simple) model can do epistemic justice to the (complex) world, so there cannot be a proper use of models that would make the method of modelling justified. Models are the...

Simpson’s paradox and the limits of econometrics  [embedded content] From a more theoretical perspective, Simpson’s paradox importantly shows that causality can never be reduced to a question of statistics or probabilities. To understand causality we always have to relate it to a specific causal structure. Statistical correlations are never enough. No structure, no causality. Simpson’s paradox is an interesting paradox in itself, but it can also highlight a...

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‘È una farfalla che muore sbattendo le ali’ [embedded content]Twentyfive years ago I met this wonderful lady. As always, for you, Jeanette. “Though I speak with the tongues of angels, If I have not love… My words would resound with but a tinkling cymbal. And though I have the gift of prophecy​… And understand all mysteries… and all knowledge… And though I have all faith So that I could remove mountains, If I have not love… I am nothing.”...

Brothers and sisters of mine This one is for you — all you brothers and sisters struggling to survive in civil wars or forced to flee your homes and risking your lives. [embedded content] Then the righteous will answer him, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink? When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you? When did we see you sick or in prison and go to visit you?’...

Neoclassical economics and the severity of the coronavirus crisis. This training in economics makes politicians and bureaucrats incapable of understanding a crisis like this. They are, however, very susceptible to the advice of economists. They therefore enacted policies that reduced our capacity to cope with a pandemic, crafted systems of production and distribution that drastically amplified its damaging impact when it did arrive, and ridiculed warnings...