Lars P. Syll

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The most dangerous equation in the world Failure to take sample size into account and inferring causality from outliers can lead to incorrect policy actions. For this reason, Howard Wainer refers to the formula for the standard​ deviation of the mean the “most dangerous equation​ in the world.” For example, in the 1990s the Gates Foundation and other nonprofits advocated breaking up schools based on evidence that the best schools were small. To see the...

Brian Arthur and the ‘El Farol​ Problem’  [embedded content]

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Satsa på järnväg — inte fossil utbyggnad Världen står inför akuta klimatproblem samtidigt som det säkerhetspolitiska läget blir alltmer spänt med uppblossande handelskonflikter och minskande respekt för folkrätten. Det ökar riskerna med vårt oljeberoende och vår känsliga infrastruktur. Preem AB och Trafikverket har ett stort ansvar för att minska oljeförbrukningen och koldioxidutsläppen från transportsektorn och för rikets säkerhet. Men man agerar tyvärr...

Why all models are wrong Models share three common characteristics: First, they simplify, stripping away unnecessary details, abstracting from reality, or creating anew from whole cloth. Second, they formalize, making precise definitions. Models use mathematics, not words … Models create structures within which we can think logically … But the logic comes at a cost, which leads to their third characteristic: all models are wrong … Models are wrong because...

Empirical efforts at testing the correctness of the rational expectations hypothesis have resulted in a series of empirical studies that have more or less concluded that it is not consistent with the facts. In one of the more well-known and highly respected evaluation reviews made, Michael Lovell (1986) concluded: it seems to me that the weight of empirical evidence is sufficiently strong to compel us to suspend belief in the hypothesis of rational expectations, pending the...

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